Wholestory

The whole story, not the news cycle

All four updated

· 80 new

The State of AI: Capability, Capital, and Consequence

The first frontier AI lab has opened its books: Anthropic’s public prospectus, filed on 26 October, shows $16.3 billion of first-half revenue, an $80.7 billion loss, mostly non-cash, and four models that escaped their tests. Alphabet’s cash flow was negative for a second quarter as its debt nearly tripled. The index that ranks models was rebuilt around tests the labs cannot see.

$34bn
OpenAI's yearly spend
$13.1bn of revenue
+$21.5bn since 2024
1,614
AI medical devices cleared
+90 since Jun 2026
191,961
job cuts blamed on AI
0 independently confirmed
+3,961 since Aug 2026

Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

Closed / API
Open weights
Release date
The frontier race at a glance: every scored model release by date, open weights against closed, record-setters stepped.
Covered since Jan 2016Read it from the start →

· 36 new

The 2026 Midterm Elections

Republicans hold both chambers going into the 3 November vote, and every major forecaster projects Democrats taking the House by more than the three seats they need. The Senate is closer: Inside Elections projects a Democratic gain of three to five, four being needed, and Fox News calls it a toss-up. Democrats lead the vote for Congress by about nine points.

53–47
Republican majority in the Senate; Democrats need a net gain of four
218–214
Republicans to Democrats in the House, with one independent and two vacancies
8.7
point Democratic lead on the generic ballot, in Silver Bulletin’s average
8 in Ballotpedia’s 30-day average
−0.5 since Oct 2026

Senate

Rated by Inside Elections, as of

48 Democratic4 seats between48 Republican
Alaska: Toss-up — Dan Sullivan (R)Alabama: Safe Republican — Tommy Tuberville (R) · not on the November ballotArkansas: Safe Republican — Tom Cotton (R)Arizona: not on this ballotCalifornia: not on this ballotColorado: Safe Democratic — John W. Hickenlooper (D)Connecticut: not on this ballotDelaware: Safe Democratic — Christopher A. Coons (D)Florida (special): Likely Republican — Ashley Moody (R) · special electionGeorgia: Lean Democratic — Jon Ossoff (D)Hawaii: not on this ballotIowa: Tilt Republican — Joni Ernst (R) · not on the November ballotIdaho: Safe Republican — James E. Risch (R)Illinois: Safe Democratic — Richard J. Durbin (D) · not on the November ballotIndiana: not on this ballotKansas: Tilt Republican — Roger Marshall (R)Kentucky: Safe Republican — Mitch McConnell (R) · not on the November ballotLouisiana: Safe Republican — Bill Cassidy (R) · not on the November ballotMassachusetts: Safe Democratic — Edward J. Markey (D)Maryland: not on this ballotMaine: Toss-up — Susan M. Collins (R)Michigan: Tilt Democratic — Gary C. Peters (D) · not on the November ballotMinnesota: Lean Democratic — Tina Smith (D) · not on the November ballotMissouri: not on this ballotMississippi: Safe Republican — Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)Montana: Safe Republican — Steve Daines (R) · not on the November ballotNorth Carolina: Lean Democratic — Thom Tillis (R) · not on the November ballotNorth Dakota: not on this ballotNebraska: Lean Republican — Pete Ricketts (R)New Hampshire: Tilt Democratic — Jeanne Shaheen (D) · not on the November ballotNew Jersey: Safe Democratic — Cory A. Booker (D)New Mexico: Safe Democratic — Ben Ray Luján (D)Nevada: not on this ballotNew York: not on this ballotOhio (special): Toss-up — Jon Husted (R) · special electionOklahoma: Safe Republican — Alan Armstrong (R) · not on the November ballotOregon: Safe Democratic — Jeff Merkley (D)Pennsylvania: not on this ballotRhode Island: Safe Democratic — Jack Reed (D)South Carolina: Lean Republican — Darline Graham (R)South Dakota: Safe Republican — Mike Rounds (R)Tennessee: Safe Republican — Bill Hagerty (R)Texas: Toss-up — John Cornyn (R) · not on the November ballotUtah: not on this ballotVirginia: Safe Democratic — Mark R. Warner (D)Vermont: not on this ballotWashington: not on this ballotWisconsin: not on this ballotWest Virginia: Safe Republican — Shelley Moore Capito (R)Wyoming: Safe Republican — Cynthia M. Lummis (R) · not on the November ballot
Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RNot on this ballot

Both chambers, and the ratings over time →

Every seat on the 3 November ballot as rated by Inside Elections: the Senate on the map, the House as one cell per district inside its state. Drag the bar to see the ratings as they stood on any date; the first stop is the seats as held. A rust outline marks a rating that moved in the latest update.
Covered since Apr 2026Read it from the start →

· 9 new

Climate Change

Greenhouse gases set new records in 2025, with carbon dioxide at 426.8 parts per million, and the UN finds that the latest national climate plans would cut emissions only about 6% below 2019 levels by 2035. Heat was linked to a record 710,000 deaths in 2023, most of them attributable to warming.

1.4
above pre-industrial, latest full year (NASA GISTEMP)
−0.1 since 2024
2nd warmest
January–September 2026 on record, 0.07°C behind 2024
3.11°C
daily Niño 3.4 reading, 21 September — the highest El Niño measured

°C above 1850–1900Observed to Sep 2026

IPCC AR6 2021IPCC AR6 2021: SSP2-4.5, Table SPM.1: best estimate and very likely range for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, from the assessed 2011–2020 observed 1.09 [0.95–1.20]°C. Stated Aug 9, 2021, to 2060.NASA GISTEMPHadCRUT5Berkeley Earth (high-resolution)Jun 23, 1988 — The earth is warmer in 1988 than at any time in the history of instrumental measMay 25, 1990 — Under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions... a rate of increase ofDec 15, 1995 — For the mid-range IPCC emission scenario, IS92a, the model-projected global meanJan 20, 2001 — The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8Feb 2, 2007 — For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for aSep 27, 2013 — The global mean surface temperature change for the period 2016–2035 relative to Dec 12, 2015 — The Paris Agreement is adoptedOct 8, 2018 — The IPCC prices the difference between 1.5°C and 2°CAug 9, 2021 — Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least mid-century

NASA GISTEMPHadCRUT5Berkeley Earth (high-resolution)Stated range, central estimate dashed

Every projection, and the record over time →

Global surface temperature as the major records measure it, against what each assessment projected from the year it was published. Drag the bar to any vintage to see what was known and what was forecast at that moment. Numbered dots are the moments the record marks.
Covered since Jun 1988Read it from the start →

· 72 new

The Ukraine-Russia War: A Grinding Test of Industrial Might

Russia and Ukraine are keeping their first local truce, around occupied Oleshky, while the war goes on everywhere else. Ukraine stopped two of 16 ballistic missiles on October 26–27, a drone killed 14 at Dnipro’s railway station, and a UN inquiry calls Russia’s attacks on the power grid crimes against humanity. The three-way talks both sides say they will join in Abu Dhabi still have no date.

-81
km² net change in Russian-held ground last month, on ISW’s count
−171 since Aug 2026
$1.9bn
short of the weapons needed, every month
Russia
Ukraine (Sovereign Borders)
Russian-Occupied Territory
Territorial control: Russian-occupied territory against Ukraine's sovereign borders.
Covered since Jul 2020Read it from the start →