Updated Oct 29

The Senate

The forecasters ended the campaign with Democrats close to a Senate majority but not past it. Inside Elections projects a gain of three to five seats, four being needed; Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s editors wrote of a narrow majority of 51 or 52, as The Hill reported. Fox News rates neither side at 50, with six seats undecided.

The ratings kept moving toward Democrats. South Carolina, where Sen. Darline Graham faces Annie Andrews, went to Toss-up at Fox on 29 October after a Times/Siena poll found it tied at 48. Fox moved Ohio to Lean Democratic, and the Crystal Ball moved Florida off Safe Republican.

CNN polls released 29 October had Democrats ahead by 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas, and by 4 in Maine and Kansas. Suffolk had Sherrod Brown 3 ahead in Ohio.

In Alaska, the New York Times reported that Mary Peltola’s campaign helped recruit a second candidate named Dan Sullivan; the campaign denies it, and Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered a state investigation. The ballot is unchanged.

New Oct 29

The whole story4 chapters

The state of it — as of October 29, 2026

Item	Status	As of
AlabamaTommy Tuberville (R) · not on the November ballot	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
AlaskaDan Sullivan (R)	Toss-up	Oct 1, 2026
ArkansasTom Cotton (R)	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
ColoradoJohn W. Hickenlooper (D)	Safe Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
DelawareChristopher A. Coons (D)	Safe Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
Florida (special)Ashley Moody (R) · special election	Likely Republican	Oct 15, 2026
GeorgiaJon Ossoff (D)	Lean Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
IdahoJames E. Risch (R)	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
IllinoisRichard J. Durbin (D) · not on the November ballot	Safe Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
IowaJoni Ernst (R) · not on the November ballot	Tilt Republican	Oct 1, 2026
KansasRoger Marshall (R)	Tilt Republican	Oct 15, 2026
KentuckyMitch McConnell (R) · not on the November ballot	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
LouisianaBill Cassidy (R) · not on the November ballot	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
MaineSusan M. Collins (R)	Toss-up	Oct 1, 2026
MassachusettsEdward J. Markey (D)	Safe Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
MichiganGary C. Peters (D) · not on the November ballot	Tilt Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
MinnesotaTina Smith (D) · not on the November ballot	Lean Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
MississippiCindy Hyde-Smith (R)	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
MontanaSteve Daines (R) · not on the November ballot	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
NebraskaPete Ricketts (R)	Lean Republican	Oct 1, 2026
New HampshireJeanne Shaheen (D) · not on the November ballot	Tilt Democratic	Oct 15, 2026
New JerseyCory A. Booker (D)	Safe Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
New MexicoBen Ray Luján (D)	Safe Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
North CarolinaThom Tillis (R) · not on the November ballot	Lean Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
Ohio (special)Jon Husted (R) · special election	Toss-up	Oct 1, 2026
OklahomaAlan Armstrong (R) · not on the November ballot	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
OregonJeff Merkley (D)	Safe Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
Rhode IslandJack Reed (D)	Safe Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
South CarolinaDarline Graham (R)	Lean Republican	Oct 15, 2026
South DakotaMike Rounds (R)	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
TennesseeBill Hagerty (R)	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
TexasJohn Cornyn (R) · not on the November ballot	Toss-up	Oct 15, 2026
VirginiaMark R. Warner (D)	Safe Democratic	Oct 1, 2026
West VirginiaShelley Moore Capito (R)	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026
WyomingCynthia M. Lummis (R) · not on the November ballot	Safe Republican	Oct 1, 2026

Oct 15, 2026 · latest

Every Senate seat on the ballot on 3 November 2026, as rated by Inside Elections on 15 October.

53–47

Republican majority, counting two independents with the Democrats

22 of 35

seats on the ballot are held by Republicans

net seats Democrats need to gain for a majority

Today

All new5

Oct 29, 2026

Alaska’s Governor Orders an Inquiry After a Report That Peltola’s Campaign Recruited a Second Sullivan

The New York Times reported on 28 October that Mary Peltola’s campaign worked with Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee aides and an Alaska operative to recruit spoiler candidates, including Dan J. Sullivan of Petersburg, the senator’s namesake. Its key source, the campaign’s former manager, later retracted her statements; the campaign and the DSCC deny recruiting anyone. President Trump said Peltola should be prosecuted. On 29 October Gov. Mike Dunleavy said he was directing the Department of Public Safety to investigate whether laws were broken. The ballot is unchanged: the Alaska Supreme Court ruled in June that Dan J. Sullivan qualifies.

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The New York TimesAlaska Public MediaPBS NewsHourThe Guardian

Oct 29, 2026

Fox News Moves South Carolina to Toss-up and Ohio to Lean Democratic

Fox News’s Power Rankings moved South Carolina from Lean Republican to Toss-up on 29 October, citing a tied Times/Siena poll, and Ohio’s special election from Toss-up to Lean Democratic. Mississippi went from Solid to Likely Republican, the second house to move it that way after Cook on 20 October. Fox rates neither party at a majority: Democrats favoured in 48 seats, Republicans ahead in 46, six undecided. This is one forecaster’s rating, not a result.

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Fox News

Oct 29, 2026

Final-Week Polls: Democrats Ahead in Michigan and Texas; Maine, Kansas, Ohio and South Carolina Within Four

CNN/SSRS polls on 29 October had Abdul El-Sayed 7 points ahead of Mike Rogers in Michigan and James Talarico 6 ahead of Ken Paxton in Texas; Troy Jackson led Susan Collins in Maine and Adam Hamilton led Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, each 49–45. Marist had Jackson ahead 49–47 in Maine, Texas Southern University had Talarico ahead 49–47, and Suffolk had Sherrod Brown ahead of Sen. Jon Husted 47–44 in Ohio. Times/Siena found South Carolina tied at 48, Sen. Ashley Moody 6 ahead in Florida, and Peggy Flanagan 14 ahead in Minnesota — which its own analyst called an outlier.

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CNNDocumentCloudMarist PollFOX 26 Houston (KRIV)Suffolk University Political Research CenterThe New York TimesCNN

Oct 27, 2026

Crystal Ball Moves Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina Toward Democrats

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved three Senate races toward Democrats, The Hill reported on 27 October: Florida’s special election from Safe to Likely Republican, citing early voting; South Carolina from Likely to Leans Republican; and North Carolina’s open seat from Leans to Likely Democratic. South Carolina has now moved toward Democrats with Inside Elections, Cook and the Crystal Ball since 15 October. The ratings are given as The Hill reported them; the Crystal Ball’s own page could not be read.

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The Hill

Oct 27, 2026

As of this point, we are thinking the Democrats have the inside track to a Senate majority, albeit narrowly at 51 or 52 seats. But these races are all close, and we want to take in all of the final information before pushing the remaining Toss-ups.

— Sabato's Crystal Ball

Not yet checked

Kyle Kondik and Miles Coleman, as quoted by The Hill on 27 October; the Crystal Ball’s own page refused our reader. A relayed final call is graded only if its own page or a second report confirms it.

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The Hill

Earlier this month

NewOct 23, 2026

Democrats are also favorites to win the Senate. They need a net gain of four seats, and our current projection is a Democratic gain of three and five seats, but our projections could change before the election.

— Inside Elections

Not yet checked

Inside Elections’ Senate call as of 23 October, stated by Nathan Gonzales on its own podcast; unchanged since 1 October. Note a gain of three gives a 50–50 Senate, which the vice president breaks for Republicans. Decided by the result.

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Inside Elections

Oct 21, 2026

Three Texas Polls Within Two Points; Democrats Ahead in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina

In Texas, Fox News had James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied at 49 among likely voters; Emerson for Nexstar and the University of Houston each had Talarico ahead 48 to 46. In Ohio, Fox had Sherrod Brown ahead of Sen. Jon Husted 52 to 47 and Marist 48 to 44. The AJC's poll had Sen. Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins by 8 points, and Elon had Roy Cooper 13 ahead in North Carolina. Marist had Michigan at 50 to 48 for Abdul El-Sayed; Data for Progress had Alaska at 47 to 44 for Mary Peltola on first choices.

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Fox NewsEmerson College PollingUniversity of Houston Hobby School of Public AffairsFox NewsMarist PollThe Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionElon University PollMarist PollData for Progress

Oct 20, 2026

Cook Moves South Carolina and Mississippi Toward Democrats and Minnesota Toward Republicans

The Cook Political Report moved three Senate races on 20 October, citing candidate quality, The Hill reported. South Carolina, where appointed Sen. Darline Graham faces Annie Andrews, went from Likely to Lean Republican — the second ratings house to move it that way in a week, after Inside Elections on 15 October. Mississippi, where Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Scott Colom, went from Solid to Likely Republican. Minnesota's open seat, between Peggy Flanagan and Michele Tafoya, went from Likely to Lean Democratic. These are forecasters’ ratings, not results.

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The Hill

Oct 15, 2026

Inside Elections Moves Five Senate Seats Toward Democrats; Texas Becomes a Toss-Up

Inside Elections moved five Senate races toward Democrats in its ratings of 15 October. Texas went from Tilt Republican to Toss-up and New Hampshire from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. Kansas moved from Likely to Tilt Republican, two days after MS NOW moved it from Likely to Lean Republican; MS NOW also moved Minnesota from Likely to Lean Democratic. South Carolina and Florida’s special election each moved a step from the safest Republican ratings. The firm kept its projection of a Democratic gain of three to five seats, four being needed. These are forecasters’ ratings, not results.

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Inside ElectionsInside ElectionsMS NOW

Oct 9, 2026

Ten State Polls in Four Days: Democrats Lead in Maine, Ohio, New Hampshire and North Carolina

Ten Senate polls came out between 6 and 9 October. In Maine, Troy Jackson led Susan Collins 51–47 among registered voters (Marist) and 50–46 (Washington Post–Schar School, via The Hill). Sherrod Brown led Jon Husted 49–43 in Ohio (CNN/SSRS). Chris Pappas led John E. Sununu 51–44 in New Hampshire (for AARP), and Roy Cooper led Michael Whatley 50–43 in North Carolina (ECU). Iowa split: Josh Turek 48–44 (Suffolk), Ashley Hinson 47–45 (Emerson) and 45–43 (CNN/SSRS). Texas was tied (UMass Lowell), and Peggy Flanagan led Michele Tafoya 48–45 in Minnesota (Rasmussen). Margins of error run from 3 to 4.5 points.

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Marist PollThe HillCNNThe HillAARPECU Center for Survey ResearchUSA TodayEmerson College PollingUMass Lowell Center for Public OpinionRasmussen Reports

Oct 6, 2026

Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball Move Senate Seats Toward the Democrats

On 6 October the Cook Political Report shifted Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, its second move there in two weeks, New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat and North Carolina from Lean to Likely Democrat, the Washington Post reported. Its Senate editor, Jessica Taylor, put Democratic gains at two to six seats; they need four. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Alaska from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, per The Hill, and took South Carolina out of its safest Republican category; reports differ on the new label. Both firms’ ratings are as others reported them. Inside Elections’ ratings are unchanged.

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The Washington PostThe HillThe HillWashington ExaminerSC Daily GazetteTIMEInside Elections

Oct 3, 2026

Times/Siena Polls Put Democrats Ahead in Alaska, Ohio and Texas

New York Times/Siena polls of likely voters in five Republican-held seats found the Democrat ahead in three. Alaska: Mary Peltola 50, Dan Sullivan 43. Texas: James Talarico 51, Ken Paxton 45. Ohio: Sherrod Brown 49, Jon Husted 46. Kansas was tied at 45 between Adam Hamilton and Roger Marshall. In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson led Josh Turek 48 to 47. The polls were taken by telephone from 22 September to 1 October, with about 600 voters in each state and about 500 in Alaska. The Times puts the margin of sampling error at 4.5 to 5.5 points per state.

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Siena Research InstituteThe Seattle Times

Oct 2, 2026

Cook Lists Seven Senate Toss-Ups, the Guardian Reports

The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate seats as toss-ups — Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas — according to the Guardian. Five are held by Republicans. The Guardian reports Cook also rates North Carolina as leaning Democratic, Kansas as leaning Republican and Georgia as likely Democratic, and considers 14 seats certain for the Republican. These are Cook’s ratings as the Guardian reported them. Inside Elections, rating the same seats a day earlier, put three of Cook’s seven toss-ups — Iowa, Texas and Michigan — a step to one side.

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The GuardianInside Elections

Oct 1, 2026

Inside Elections Projects a Democratic Gain of Three to Five Senate Seats

Inside Elections’ ratings of 1 October project Democrats to gain three to five seats. They need four for a majority; Republicans hold the chamber 53–47. The firm rates four seats as toss-ups: Alaska, Maine and Ohio, all Republican-held, and New Hampshire, an open Democratic seat. It tilts Michigan to the Democrats and Iowa and Texas to the Republicans, and rates Republican-held North Carolina as leaning Democratic. Thirteen seats are rated solidly Republican and nine solidly Democratic. This is one forecaster’s projection, not a result.

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Inside Elections

This quarter

Aug 11, 2026

Flanagan and Tafoya Win Minnesota’s Senate Primaries

Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan defeated Representative Angie Craig for the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open Senate seat, 59.0% to 39.4%, by the Secretary of State’s count. Former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya won the Republican primary with 52.1% in a field of nine. The Associated Press called both races on the night. The seat is open because Senator Tina Smith is not running. Inside Elections rates it Lean Democratic.

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Minnesota Secretary of StateNPRInside Elections

Earlier this year

Jul 25, 2026

Maine Democrats Replace Their Senate Nominee

The Maine Democratic Party nominated Troy Jackson, a logger and former president of the state senate, to replace Graham Platner on the November ballot. Platner won the primary on 9 June with 71.9% of the vote, by NPR’s tally, and withdrew in July; NPR says the withdrawal followed “a series of scandals” and does not describe them. Jackson was chosen “overwhelmingly” at a nominating convention, NPR reported, with no vote count given. The Secretary of State’s candidate list shows two names for the seat: Susan Collins and Troy Jackson. Inside Elections rates the race a toss-up.

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NPRBBC NewsState of Maine (Secretary of State)State of Maine (Secretary of State)Inside ElectionsNPR

Jul 11, 2026Lindsey Graham Dies; His Sister Takes the South Carolina Seat

May 26, 2026Paxton Defeats Cornyn in the Texas Republican Runoff

May 16, 2026Cassidy Is Eliminated in Louisiana’s Republican Primary

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