Updated Oct 29

The 2026 Midterm Elections

Rated by Inside Elections, as of Oct 15, 2026

48 Democratic4 seats between48 Republican

Oct 15, 2026 · latest

Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RNot on this ballot

Every seat on the 3 November ballot as rated by Inside Elections: the Senate on the map, the House as one cell per district inside its state. Drag the bar to see the ratings as they stood on any date; the first stop is the seats as held. A rust outline marks a rating that moved in the latest update.

Every major ratings firm projects Democrats taking the House by far more than the three seats they need. Cook projects a gain of 12 to 22 after moving 19 races on 23 October; Inside Elections holds at 10 to 20; Fox News’s final rankings put at least 223 seats in Democratic columns.

The Senate, where Democrats need four seats, is closer. Inside Elections projects a gain of three to five; the Crystal Ball’s editors wrote of a narrow majority of 51 or 52, The Hill reported; Fox calls it a toss-up, 48 to 46 with six undecided. VoteHub’s model gives Democrats 61% and Polymarket traders 67.5%. Late CNN polls had Democrats ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine and Kansas.

Democrats lead the vote for Congress by 8.7 points in Silver Bulletin’s average. Republican committees hold twice the Democrats’ cash, and advertising has passed a record $11.2 billion.

Courts are keeping the rules in place. The Justice Department sued to stop Alaska certifying its Senate result if a second Dan Sullivan costs the senator the race, and lost a bid to hold back 20,000 California ballots. Asked if he would respect the results, President Trump said: “I will if they’re honest elections.”

New Oct 29

in all six topics

The whole story6 chapters

The state of it — as of October 29, 2026

53–47

Republican majority in the Senate; Democrats need a net gain of four

218–214

Republicans to Democrats in the House, with one independent and two vacancies

8.7

point Democratic lead on the generic ballot, in Silver Bulletin’s average
8 in Ballotpedia’s 30-day average
−0.5 since Oct 2026

Item	Status	Figure	As of
Inside Elections · SenateRatings firm · read first-hand	Democrats, narrowly	D +3 to 5 seats	Oct 1, 2026
Inside Elections · HouseRatings firm · read first-hand	Democrats favoured	D +10 to 20 seats	Oct 15, 2026
Cook Political Report · SenateRatings firm · as reported by The Hill	Democrats, narrowly	D +2 to 6 seats	Oct 6, 2026
Cook Political Report · HouseRatings firm · as reported by The Hill and Newsweek; 23 October by Forbes and The Center Square	Democrats favoured	D +12 to 22 seats	Oct 23, 2026
Sabato’s Crystal Ball · SenateRatings firm · read first-hand to 20 October; 27 October call as reported by The Hill	Democrats favoured	D 51 or 52 seats	Oct 27, 2026
Sabato’s Crystal Ball · HouseRatings firm · read first-hand from 20 October; earlier item as reported by the Sun Sentinel	Democrats favoured	223 D, 200 R, 12 toss-ups	Oct 20, 2026
Decision Desk HQ · SenateForecast model · wording read first-hand; probability as reported by The Hill	Democrats, narrowly	58%	Oct 29, 2026
Decision Desk HQ · HouseForecast model · seat average read first-hand; probability as reported by The Hill	Democrats favoured	80%	Oct 27, 2026
CBS News / YouGov · HousePollster’s seat model · read first-hand, numbers not readable	Democrats, narrowly	Narrow D majority	Oct 4, 2026
Fox News Power Rankings · HouseRatings · read first-hand	Democrats favoured	D at least 223, R 195	Oct 29, 2026
Fox News Power Rankings · SenateRatings · read first-hand	No favourite	48 D, 46 R, 6 toss-ups	Oct 29, 2026
VoteHub · SenateForecast model · read first-hand	Democrats favoured	61%	Oct 28, 2026
VoteHub · HouseForecast model · read first-hand	Democrats favoured	88%	Oct 28, 2026
Race to the WH · SenateForecast model · as reported by Newsweek	Democrats favoured	72%	Oct 15, 2026
Race to the WH · HouseForecast model · as reported by Newsweek	Democrats favoured	88%	Oct 15, 2026
Polymarket · SenatePrediction market · read first-hand	Democrats favoured	67.5%	Oct 29, 2026
Polymarket · HousePrediction market · read first-hand	Democrats favoured	92.5%	Oct 22, 2026

Oct 29, 2026 · latest

Each named forecaster’s current call for control of the Senate and the House, with its date and how it was read. None of these calls is the paper’s.

In this story

All six updated Oct 29

Updated Oct 29

The New Maps

Every state’s lines for 3 November are settled, and the remaining fights are about 2028. On 27 October the three-judge federal court in Shreveport heard Louisiana and civil-rights groups argue that the Callais case is over, and the challengers’ lawyer argue for keeping it open to examine the 2nd District, the state’s last majority-Black seat. The court did not rule; its next date is 15 December, and no decision can change this year’s map.

In Missouri, Proposition A asks whether the 2025 map, which would make Kansas City’s 5th District one Trump carried in 2024, replaces the 2022 lines from 2028. The opposing committee reports more than $5 million in large contributions; the map’s backers say no campaign is organised for it.

On this year’s maps, the Cook Political Report’s 17 House toss-ups as of 23 October included five Democratic seats Republican legislators redrew, the Times reported. An Associated Press analysis on 20 October found the new maps moved the House’s deciding seat 1.4 points toward Republicans, and Republican leaders concede they will not win every seat drawn for them.

Continue: The New Maps →

states voting on congressional lines different from 2024

+1.4 pts

shift toward Republicans in the deciding House seat, on 2024 votes

2 to 5

seats nonpartisan raters say the new maps could flip to Republicans

Updated Oct 29 · 2 new

The National Picture

The Democratic lead on the generic ballot held near its high in the campaign’s last full week. Silver Bulletin’s average stood at 8.7 points on 28 October, after peaking at 9.2; its likely-voter version reads 9.2. Ballotpedia’s 30-day average rose to 51% to 43%.

Likely-voter polls finishing 20–26 October ranged from Democrats ahead by 5 (Rasmussen) to 9 (Reuters/Ipsos, Economist/YouGov, Cygnal) and 11 in Prolific’s opt-in panel. Marist, polling likely voters for the first time this campaign, found 52% to 44%; Harvard-Harris, the closest, had 52% to 48% among registered voters.

Donald Trump’s approval rebounded about a point from its low in Silver Bulletin’s average, to 37.4%, with about 60% disapproving. Marist found 61% of registered voters disapproving, the most in either of his terms.

Gallup found the lowest share in any final pre-midterm reading since 1994 saying their own representative deserves re-election — 43% — and Congress’s approval at 14%, a pre-midterm low since 1974.

Continue: The National Picture →

Democratic lead (points)

Silver Bulletin average

Ballotpedia 30-day average

Month

8.7

point Democratic lead on the generic ballot, in Silver Bulletin’s average
8 in Ballotpedia’s 30-day average
−0.5 since Oct 2026

-24.3

Trump’s net approval, in Silver Bulletin’s average
−2 since Oct 2026

Updated Oct 29 · 6 new

The Senate

The forecasters ended the campaign with Democrats close to a Senate majority but not past it. Inside Elections projects a gain of three to five seats, four being needed; Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s editors wrote of a narrow majority of 51 or 52, as The Hill reported. Fox News rates neither side at 50, with six seats undecided.

The ratings kept moving toward Democrats. South Carolina, where Sen. Darline Graham faces Annie Andrews, went to Toss-up at Fox on 29 October after a Times/Siena poll found it tied at 48. Fox moved Ohio to Lean Democratic, and the Crystal Ball moved Florida off Safe Republican.

CNN polls released 29 October had Democrats ahead by 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas, and by 4 in Maine and Kansas. Suffolk had Sherrod Brown 3 ahead in Ohio.

In Alaska, the New York Times reported that Mary Peltola’s campaign helped recruit a second candidate named Dan Sullivan; the campaign denies it, and Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered a state investigation. The ballot is unchanged.

Continue: The Senate →

53–47

Republican majority, counting two independents with the Democrats

22 of 35

seats on the ballot are held by Republicans

net seats Democrats need to gain for a majority

Updated Oct 29 · 4 new

The House

With the vote on 3 November, the three main ratings firms all project Democrats gaining far more than the three seats they need. Cook moved 19 more races toward Democrats on 23 October and raised its projection to a gain of 12 to 22, from 9 to 19; it rates 220 seats at least Lean Democrat and 17 Toss Up, 12 of them Republican-held. Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales put its range at 10 to 20 the same day, unchanged since 15 October.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved 16 more races on 27 October, per The Hill, nearly 50 in the month. Texas’s 15th, which Trump carried by nearly 20 points, now leans Democratic in its ratings, and open seats in Kentucky and Montana became toss-ups.

The contest has narrowed to a short list: by States Newsroom’s count, 16 races are Toss-ups for at least two of the three firms, and five — Florida’s 14th, Michigan’s 7th, New York’s 17th and Ohio’s 7th and 9th — for all three. New Times/Siena polls of four Pennsylvania seats found Democrats ahead in three and tied in Scott Perry’s 10th.

The chamber stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies.

Continue: The House →

218–214

Republicans to Democrats, with one independent and two vacant seats

districts Inside Elections lists as in play; Republicans hold 46

states voting on lines different from 2024

Updated Oct 29 · 16 new

How the Election Is Run

With five days of voting left, courts are refusing to change the rules. On 22 October the Supreme Court let New Hampshire refuse student IDs at the polls, citing the principle against late changes; Justice Jackson dissented. North Carolina's absentee rules and Ohio's proof-of-citizenship requirement also stand.

The fights are over what the federal government does. On 28 October a federal judge refused the Justice Department's bid to hold back California mail ballots from 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens, saying he could not call its matching credible; the department is appealing. It made the same demand of Washington, which refused. Where states have checked federal citizenship flags, most of those named have been citizens.

The department has also sued to stop Alaska certifying its Senate result if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses because of a second candidate with his name; President Trump says he ordered it. In Utah it lost a 27th suit for a state's voter roll, with no wins.

At the polls, the department says about 1,000 monitors will be in every state, none of them FBI or ICE employees or armed, and states are setting where they may stand.

Continue: How the Election Is Run →

states gave the Justice Department full voter rolls under a now-vacated policy

About 30

states count some mail ballots that arrive after election day

states use the federal citizenship-check system on their voter rolls

Updated Oct 29 · 7 new

The Money

The last reports before the vote, covering 1 to 14 October, show the RNC, NRSC and NRCC holding $147.9 million against $73.0 million for the Democrats' three committees. Both sides are spending down, and three committees carry debts: the NRSC $20 million, the DNC and DSCC $15 million each. Federal committees spent more than $1 billion in those two weeks, The New York Times found.

Anything spent since 14 October shows up only in 24- and 48-hour reports, and those stopped for two days. The FEC took its filing system offline late on 26 October after an attempted breach and restored it on the evening of 28 October; it has not said who was behind it.

Advertising spent or reserved has reached $11.21 billion, AdImpact counts, past 2024's record. Kansas's Senate race, at $84.5 million, is the most expensive election in the state's history.

The final-week moves are mixed. Republicans cut reservations in four House districts, including California's 13th and Nebraska's 2nd. House Majority PAC pulled and then partly restored money in two Florida seats, and the DSCC entered Mississippi with $500,000. In 14 of 56 competitive races, the candidates' own reports changed which side holds more cash.

Continue: The Money →

147.9

million dollars on hand at the three Republican national committees
73 at the three Democratic ones
−39 since Sep 2026

$11.21bn

political advertising spent or reserved for 2026, past 2024’s record

$272.9m

raised July to September by the Senate Leadership Fund, a record

Today

NewOct 27, 2026

I will if they're honest elections

— Donald Trump

Not yet checked

The president, asked by reporters on 27 October whether he would respect the results whatever the outcome. A conditional undertaking whose condition is his own to judge, so it cannot be scored as stated; it is read against what he says once each chamber is certified.

Read

USA TodayThe Hill

Earlier this month

Oct 14, 2026

Political Scientists’ Forecasts Agree on a Democratic House and Split on the Senate

A special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics, released on 14 October, published 17 forecasting studies. All 12 of its House predictions have Democrats winning control, its publisher’s release says; its Senate forecasts are split. Among the named models, Stephen Quinlan and Michael Lewis-Beck project 231 Democratic House seats and 50 Senate seats; Charles Tien and Lewis-Beck forecast a Republican loss of 33 House seats and a Democratic Senate; Jack Rametta and Christopher Hare put Democrats at 50 Senate seats, range 45 to 56. Several models were run on data from weeks or months before release.

Read

EurekAlert!Political Science Now (American Political Science Association)

Oct 4, 2026

Decision Desk HQ Forecasts Democrats Winning Both Chambers

Decision Desk HQ forecasts Democrats winning the Senate with 51 seats and the House with 234, USA Today reports. That would be a change of control in both chambers. Roll Call reports that most handicappers now favour Democrats to win majorities in each. These are forecasts, not results, and the Decision Desk figures are as USA Today reported them: the firm’s own forecast page could not be read, and the report gives no date for the forecast.

Read

USA TodayRoll Call

Covered since Apr 2026Read it from the start →