Chapter 1
On 3 November 2026 the United States elects all 435 members of the…
On 3 November 2026 the United States elects all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of its 100 senators. It is a midterm: the presidency is not on the ballot, and the election decides which party controls each chamber of Congress for the second half of the presidential term.
Chapter 2
Republicans hold both chambers
Republicans hold both chambers. In the Senate the margin is 53 to 47, counting two independents who sit with the Democrats; Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 seats being contested. In the House the division is 218 to 214, with one independent and two vacancies, and a shift of a few seats would change control.
Chapter 3
The House is being fought on a changed map
The House is being fought on a changed map. Nine states are voting on congressional lines different from those of 2024, after a round of mid-decade redrawing that began in Texas in 2025. Every state’s lines for 3 November are settled; the lawsuits over several of the maps run on past the election.
Chapter 4
The measurements taken so far favour Democrats
The measurements taken so far favour Democrats. Named polling averages show them ahead on the generic ballot by seven to nine points, the president’s approval is near its lowest in those averages, and the ratings firm whose tables can be read in full projects Democratic gains large enough to take the House and possibly the Senate. Republicans hold the advantage in money, at the party committees and in outside advertising.
Chapter 5
What is unresolved is partly the result and partly the process
What is unresolved is partly the result and partly the process. Both parties have lawsuits pending over how ballots are handled and who may be present where they are cast and counted. The Supreme Court has settled some of it. In June it upheld state laws that count mail ballots arriving shortly after election day. In September it left each state’s mail-ballot arrangements in place by refusing to revive a new Postal Service rule, and it let the federal system for checking voters’ citizenship stay in use while a challenge is appealed. No forecast here is the paper’s own: each is recorded with the name of the firm that made it, to be compared with the certified result.
And now
Every major ratings firm projects Democrats taking the House by far more than the three seats they need. Cook projects a gain of 12 to 22 after moving 19 races on 23 October; Inside Elections holds at 10 to 20; Fox News’s final rankings put at least 223 seats in Democratic columns.
The Senate, where Democrats need four seats, is closer. Inside Elections projects a gain of three to five; the Crystal Ball’s editors wrote of a narrow majority of 51 or 52, The Hill reported; Fox calls it a toss-up, 48 to 46 with six undecided. VoteHub’s model gives Democrats 61% and Polymarket traders 67.5%. Late CNN polls had Democrats ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine and Kansas.
Democrats lead the vote for Congress by 8.7 points in Silver Bulletin’s average. Republican committees hold twice the Democrats’ cash, and advertising has passed a record $11.2 billion.
Courts are keeping the rules in place. The Justice Department sued to stop Alaska certifying its Senate result if a second Dan Sullivan costs the senator the race, and lost a bid to hold back 20,000 California ballots. Asked if he would respect the results, President Trump said: “I will if they’re honest elections.”
Where it stands today →