The House

With the vote on 3 November, the three main ratings firms all project Democrats gaining far more than the three seats they need. Cook moved 19 more races toward Democrats on 23 October and raised its projection to a gain of 12 to 22, from 9 to 19; it rates 220 seats at least Lean Democrat and 17 Toss Up, 12 of them Republican-held. Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales put its range at 10 to 20 the same day, unchanged since 15 October.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved 16 more races on 27 October, per The Hill, nearly 50 in the month. Texas’s 15th, which Trump carried by nearly 20 points, now leans Democratic in its ratings, and open seats in Kentucky and Montana became toss-ups.

The contest has narrowed to a short list: by States Newsroom’s count, 16 races are Toss-ups for at least two of the three firms, and five — Florida’s 14th, Michigan’s 7th, New York’s 17th and Ohio’s 7th and 9th — for all three. New Times/Siena polls of four Pennsylvania seats found Democrats ahead in three and tied in Scott Perry’s 10th.

The chamber stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies.