Why this score Nonpartisan race-ratings newsletter; baseline is provisional until its 2026 calls are graded against certified results.
Democrats are clear favorites to win the House majority. Our current range is a Democratic gain of 10 to 20 seats, which is entirely above the three seats they need to gain for a majority.
Inside Elections’ chamber call as of 23 October, stated by Nathan Gonzales on its own podcast; unchanged from 15 October. He added that its projections could change before the election. Decided by the certified result.
Democrats are also favorites to win the Senate. They need a net gain of four seats, and our current projection is a Democratic gain of three and five seats, but our projections could change before the election.
Inside Elections’ Senate call as of 23 October, stated by Nathan Gonzales on its own podcast; unchanged since 1 October. Note a gain of three gives a 50–50 Senate, which the vice president breaks for Republicans. Decided by the result.