Updated Oct 29

Territorial Control & Troop Movements

Russia’s autumn has been a net loss. On October 22 ISW counted 241 square kilometres more lost than taken since September 1, and judged that Russia is “not winning on the battlefield”. The trackers disagree on October itself: DeepState’s data has Russia gaining about 47 square kilometres net in the four weeks to October 26, while The Economist’s estimate has Ukraine ahead.

Ukraine has gone underground at Kupyansk. Its troops took the gas pipeline Russian infiltrators had used to reach the town, and ISW saw no Russian attacks there on October 26, though several dozen Russian soldiers remain in its north. Near Oleksandrivka, Ukrainian troops have retaken several villages and are edging toward the Russian supply hub at Velyka Novosilka.

In the Donetsk cities, the lines barely moved: Russia gained a foothold north of Kostiantynivka and infiltrated Dobropillya without holding it. The pressure has turned on the cities themselves, and Ukraine has ordered every family with children out of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

The announcements go on. Russia claimed four more villages between October 22 and 28; ISW found none of them, though DeepState recorded genuine small Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia.

New Oct 29

in all one topics

The whole story1 chapters

The state of it — as of October 29, 2026

-81

km² net change in Russian-held ground last month, on ISW’s count
−171 since Aug 2026

0 of 4

Fortress Belt cities taken by Russia after a year-long campaign

−241 km²

Russia’s net territorial change since September 1, by ISW’s count

In this story

Updated Oct 29 · 5 new

The Fortress Belt

The fight for the Fortress Belt has turned from its lines to its roads and cities. On October 22 Ukraine ordered all families with children out of the Kramatorsk and Slovyansk communities, citing daily Russian strikes; 1,746 children were still in the zone on October 28. ISW assesses that Russia is running an air campaign against the belt’s logistics to prepare later assaults, and footage shows strikes on vehicles and firefighters in Kramatorsk.

The lines themselves barely moved. From October 21 to 28 ISW saw no Russian advance at Lyman or east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk; on October 27 neither side advanced anywhere. Russia has not formally dropped its plan to encircle the belt, though Ukraine defeated it in the autumn.

The pressure is in the south. ISW assesses a small Russian advance south-east of Dobropillya, and infiltrators inside the town, without control. North of Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian source says Russian troops have reached Klynove, which ISW counts as an advance toward the road to Druzhkivka. Inside Kostiantynivka Ukrainian troops still hold positions in the south, and the two sides’ lines overlap so closely that control cannot be mapped street by street.

Continue: The Fortress Belt →

17 km+

between Russian lines and Slovyansk after the Lyman salient collapsed

9 km+

between Russian troops, infiltrators included, and Kramatorsk (ISW)

38%

of Kostiantynivka Russian forces have advanced into, without taking it (ISW)

Today

All new

Oct 28, 2026

Ukraine Gains Ground South-East of Oleksandrivka, Toward Velyka Novosilka

The Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on October 25 that Ukrainian troops had retaken Perebudova, Komar and Fedorivka in the Oleksandrivka direction, and on October 28 that they had cleared Zaporizke and advanced past Novomykolaivka, bringing a Russian supply road under fire. ISW, which has not geolocated the gains, assesses that Ukraine is slowly threatening the Russian logistics hub at Velyka Novosilka, and that counterattacks here since February have contested Russia’s initiative across the front. Mashovets reports Russia has moved naval infantry and elements of a tank division meant for Druzhkivka to defend the sector; none is located.

Read

Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 28, 2026

Four More Villages Announced: Myrivka, Obshche, Barylivka, Alisivka. ISW Finds None.

Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed Myrivka near Hulyaipole on October 22 and Obshche on October 26; ISW puts each about 16 to 17 kilometres beyond any Russian advance it can confirm. On October 28 it claimed Barylivka, north-east of Sumy, which Ukraine’s 8th Corps called false and where ISW saw no Russian advance, and Alisivka north of Kharkiv, where ISW sees only an infiltration. ISW calls Russian bloggers’ claims near Novosoloshyne part of an effort “to fabricate claims of Russian tactical successes”. DeepState did record real Russian advances near Vozdvyzhivka and Luhivske in Zaporizhzhia on October 26 and 28.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarUkrainska Pravda

Earlier this month

NewOct 26, 2026

ISW Puts Russia’s Autumn Loss at 241 Square Kilometres. DeepState Has Russia Edging Back Ahead.

On October 22 ISW counted a net Russian loss of 241 square kilometres since September 1, a day after giving 73 for the same period; it did not explain the difference. It puts Russia’s average advance this year at 0.25 square kilometres a day and judges Russia “not winning on the battlefield”. DeepState’s data, compiled by Russia Matters, reads October differently: after a net Russian loss of 18 square miles in September, Russia gained a net 18 square miles (about 47 km²) from September 29 to October 26. The Economist’s estimate has Ukraine regaining 38 square miles in the 30 days to October 27.

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Institute for the Study of WarUnited24 MediaRussia Matters

NewOct 26, 2026

Ukraine Takes the Pipeline Into Kupyansk, and the Russian Attacks There Pause

Ukraine’s Khartiia Corps announced Operation Veles on October 22, saying its troops travelled more than 15 kilometres through the gas pipeline Russian infiltrators had used to reach Kupyansk, and took over 30 prisoners; those figures are the unit’s own. ISW reported no Russian attacks in the Kupyansk direction on October 26, likely because Ukraine now controls the pipeline, and says Veles has reportedly stopped Russia consolidating in the town’s north. A Russian military source said it had complicated Russian supply across the Oskil. Ukraine’s spokesman Viktor Trehubov said several dozen Russian soldiers remain in northern Kupyansk.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarNV (Novoye Vremya)United24 Media

Oct 21, 2026

Russia’s Year Nets Out Near Zero, on ISW’s Count

ISW’s count on October 21 puts Russia’s net gain for 2026 at about 73 square kilometres, and its net loss since September 1 at the same 73. Over the year Ukrainian forces have liberated about 1,080 square kilometres. A day earlier ISW had given a larger autumn loss, 122 square kilometres to October 16; the newer figure is its latest. ISW judges that Ukrainian counteroffensives have operationally defeated Russia’s planned drive to complete the seizure of Donetsk Oblast, and counts at least 16 deadlines Putin has set for taking the oblast since 2022, every one of them missed.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarNV (Novoye Vremya)

Oct 21, 2026

Three Villages Claimed Near Hulyaipole and Orikhiv. ISW Finds None.

Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed Tymoshivka on October 20, and Chervonyi Yar and Yulivka on October 21. ISW places them 12 to 17.5 kilometres beyond any Russian advance it can confirm, and calls the latest claims blatantly false; a flag raised in Omelnyk on October 19 it reads as an infiltration staged for a claim. Gerasimov’s capture of Malokaterynivka was undone by footage, published October 18, of Ukrainian troops raising their flag in the village. ISW puts the nearest Russian troops 24 kilometres from Zaporizhzhia city, against Gerasimov’s five and Zelensky’s 20. It confirmed one small Russian advance, in southern Novodanylivka.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarVoennoe DeloUA.NEWSUkrinformInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 21, 2026

Vladimir Putin gave Steve Witkoff an “objective picture” of the front, in which Russian forces hold “complete strategic initiative” and are conducting a relentless offensive in all key areas.

— Yuri Ushakov False

Checked: false

False. ISW measures a net Russian loss of about 73 km² across the front since September 1, and assesses that Ukrainian counteroffensives have let Ukraine contest the initiative across the front, virtually halting Russian advances.

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Institute for the Study of WarNV (Novoye Vremya)Institute for the Study of War

Oct 18, 2026

Since the beginning of autumn, Ukrainian forces have liberated more territory than Russian forces have managed to capture — and it has been the same in other parts of the year.

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy True

Checked: true

True. ISW measures a net Russian loss of about 73 km² across the front since September 1 (assessment of October 21); on its count August was also a month in which Ukraine liberated more than Russia seized.

Read

UkrinformThe Kyiv IndependentU.S. News & World ReportInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 17, 2026

An Autumn of Gains, Announced. A Net Loss, Measured.

On October 16 Putin said Russian forces had taken about 6,500 square kilometres this year, and Gerasimov told him they had taken more than 1,800 and 92 settlements since September 1. ISW measures a net Russian loss of 122 square kilometres across the front since September 1. Ukraine, it finds, still holds 20.4 percent of Donetsk Oblast, not Putin’s 10, and 24.6 percent of Zaporizhzhia. Gerasimov put his troops five kilometres from Zaporizhzhia city; ISW puts them at least 21. It found no encirclement in northern Kharkiv and only infiltrators near the villages claimed at Kupyansk.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarRBC-UkraineNasha NivaUkrainska PravdaThe Moscow Times

Oct 16, 2026

Russian forces have seized about 6,500 square kilometres and 310 settlements since the start of 2026 and are “confidently advancing”; Ukraine controls only 2,748 square kilometres, just over 10 percent, of Donetsk Oblast, and 16.5 percent of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

— Vladimir Putin False

Checked: false

False. ISW puts Ukraine’s share at 5,530 km² (20.4%) of Donetsk Oblast and 24.6% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and measures a net Russian loss of 122 km² across the front since September 1.

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Institute for the Study of WarRBC-Ukraine

Oct 16, 2026

Russian forces have seized more than 1,800 square kilometres and 92 settlements since 1 September 2026, including more than 180 square kilometres and 10 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast; they stand five kilometres from Zaporizhzhia city and have completed an encirclement in northern Kharkiv Oblast, seizing 461 square kilometres and 28 settlements there.

— Valery Gerasimov False

Checked: false

False. ISW measures a net Russian loss of 122 km² across the front since September 1, 104.5 km² seized in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Russian forces at least 20.95 km from Zaporizhzhia city. It found no evidence of an encirclement in Kharkiv Oblast.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarRBC-UkraineUkrainska PravdaThe Moscow Times

Oct 15, 2026

Small Ukrainian Gains on Five Other Sectors

Away from Lyman, ISW recorded Ukrainian advances on five sectors between October 11 and 15: tanks on the T-2104 highway northeast of Velykyi Burluk, southeastern Yunakivka near Sumy, southwest of Fedorivka near Oleksandrivka, west of Holubivka north of Kupyansk, and southwest of Orikhiv, where a Ukrainian corps says it holds Novoandriivka. Each is small. ISW said on October 11 that Ukraine “has significant momentum on the battlefield”, and on October 14 that neither side advanced at all. Through the week Russian movement near Kostyantynivka, Lyman, Hulyaipole and Orikhiv was infiltration, not advance.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 13, 2026

Villages Announced, Villages Not Found

Russia’s Defence Ministry announced four villages on October 11 — Kupyne and Riznykove in Kharkiv region, Novotroitske and Davydovske in Donetsk; ISW confirmed none, and called the claim to Novotroitske and nearby Petrivka false, resting on flag-raising video it judged AI-altered; Petrivka lies about ten kilometres beyond the nearest Russian advance. Over four more days it claimed a foiled breakout from an encircled Dobropillya, fighting 15 to 19 kilometres past ISW’s line, an encirclement east of Vovchansk, and Nefedivka and Chorne. ISW found evidence for none of it; a Russian source said Ukrainian troops were still in Nefedivka.

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Asharq Al-AwsatInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 8, 2026

Encirclements on Paper: Dobropillya, Velykyi Burluk, Hannopillya

Russia’s Defence Ministry spent three weeks announcing encirclements ISW cannot find. It claimed Ukrainian forces were surrounded in Dobropillya and northeast of Kharkiv; ISW called both baseless, and a Russian blogger said of the second that it “does not exist in a traditional sense”. A claimed seizure of Novovodiane on September 28 lies about 10 kilometres beyond the nearest assessed Russian advance; Hannopillya, claimed October 8, about 20. A Russian source said on October 9 that troops are still trying to take Kozacha Lopan, announced as seized on September 2. Inside Dobropillya, ISW confirms infiltrators in the south, not control.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 7, 2026

A Platoon of Armour Near Hulyaipole, and No Russians in Northern Orikhiv

Footage published October 2 and 7 shows a Russian mechanized assault west of Hulyaipole — at least two armoured personnel carriers, which ISW sizes at a reduced platoon and credits with a marginal advance near Staroukrainka; a Ukrainian regiment says it was repelled. ISW separately notes failed mechanized assaults near Velykyi Burluk and Dobropillya that it judges were meant to deliver infantry, not break through. Around Orikhiv, Ukrainian forces advanced south of Mala Tokmachka and Russian forces on Andriivka’s outskirts; ISW finds no evidence of Russians in northern Orikhiv. Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Reaction Corps has taken over the Hulyaipole direction.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Our reading

Oct 3, 2026

One September, Two Signs

Three trackers disagree on the direction of the same month. ISW’s assessment for September is a net Russian loss of 80.81 square kilometres; Black Bird Group’s, per the Kyiv Post, is a net loss of about 190. DeepState records a Russian gain of 66 to 154. Two relays of DeepState’s October 3 post disagree on its form. Ukrainian News presents 154 as a revision of 66, with July raised from 36 to 63 and August from 5 to 124; Censor.net gives each month as a range marked subject to change. DeepState says 270 to 320 square kilometres of liberated ground is not yet in its figures.

Compared

Institute for the Study of WarUkrainian News Agency (Ukranews)Censor.netKyiv Post

Oct 1, 2026

Russia Ended September Holding Less of Ukraine Than It Started With

ISW assessed that Russian forces seized 175.54 square kilometres in September and lost 256.35, a net loss of 80.81 — the first month in which its own net figure for Russia is negative. Counting ground Russian troops have infiltrated but do not control, the net loss is 175.18. The month’s number carries a caveat ISW states itself: at least 147 square kilometres of the losses are Operation Vivaldi liberations near Lyman that happened over preceding months and were recorded only once Ukraine disclosed them. ISW says Ukrainian secrecy will make month-on-month net figures hard to read from here on. Since March, on ISW’s count, Russia has lost control of a net 293.59 square kilometres across the whole line.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Oct 1, 2026

Russian forces seized 1,301 square kilometres of territory in Ukraine in September 2026 alone, 2.5 times more than in previous months.

— Vladimir Putin False

Checked: false

ISW assessed 175.54 square kilometres seized in September against 256.35 lost — a net Russian loss of 80.81, or 175.18 counting infiltrated ground. DeepState, the tracker most favourable to the claim, puts the month’s increase at 66 to 154.

Read

Institute for the Study of WarUkrinformInstitute for the Study of WarUkrainian News Agency (Ukranews)

This quarter

Our reading

Sep 19, 2026

Moscow Says 5,300 Square Kilometres. ISW Measured Two of the Claims.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on September 19 that its forces had taken more than 5,300 square kilometres and over 220 settlements since January, 670 square kilometres of it in September, with street fighting in central Dobropillya and clearing operations in Krasnyi Lyman and Svyatohirsk. Two claims can be measured. ISW placed a claimed September 17 seizure of Rozivka at least 13 kilometres beyond the furthest Russian advance, and a milblogger’s claimed advance nearby 11.5 kilometres from the closest confirmed position. It sees no consolidated Russian positions in Orikhiv. The 5,300 figure is not checked here. Its components are.

Compared

Yeni SafakInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 19, 2026

ISW’s Count for the Year: 148 Square Kilometres Seized, 973 Liberated

Set against the Russian Defence Ministry’s September 19 claim of 5,300 square kilometres and 220 settlements taken in 2026, ISW published its own count for the year: 147.7 square kilometres and 40 settlements seized by Russia — 718.8 if ground infiltrated but not controlled is included — and at least 972.56 square kilometres and 60 settlements liberated by Ukraine. The ministry also said its forces were clearing Lyman and Svyatohirsk. ISW put Svyatohirsk 25 kilometres from the nearest Russian line, and three villages the ministry named as objectives 22 to 37 kilometres from it.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 18, 2026

Ukraine Dissolves a Command and Draws Two New Ones

Ukraine’s military command disbanded the Eastern Group of Forces on September 18, replacing it with an Azov Group of Forces over the Dobropillya tactical area and a Center Group of Forces running from the Lyman direction to Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka. Maj. Gen. Viktor Nikolyuk left the Eastern command the day before. The 3rd Army Corps and the Lyman direction pass to Center; the Joint Forces Group keeps Kupyansk and South-Slobozhansk. ISW reorganised its own Donetsk axes the same week, for the same reason.

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Institute for the Study of War

Sep 17, 2026

A Russian Air-Defence Regiment Shows Up Near Pokrovsk for the First Time

Geolocated footage published September 17 shows drone operators of Russia’s 933rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, of the 8th Combined Arms Army, near occupied Ocheretyne, about 24 kilometres east of Pokrovsk — the first evidence ISW has seen of the regiment in Ukraine. It is the only confirmed unit position this period. Two others circulating the same days — the 5th Separate Tank Brigade at Rozivka, the 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade at Zolotyi Kolodyaz — rest on milblogger claims, and ISW puts Rozivka 13 kilometres beyond any Russian advance.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 11, 2026

The Russian offensive campaign will culminate in September 2026; Russian forces will shift to mechanized breakthrough tactics by October, reinforcing roughly 200-strong assault units with columns of about 50 armoured vehicles; and Russia will try to seize at least one Fortress Belt settlement by the end of its autumn campaign.

— Denys Prokopenko

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Institute for the Study of War

Sep 6, 2026

At Its August Rate, Russia Finishes Taking Donetsk in 2032

The Institute for the Study of War turned Russia's own rate of advance into a date. Russian forces gained 2.91 square kilometres a day across the theatre in August, and 2.36 a day in Donetsk Oblast, their priority. At that pace they would finish seizing the remaining 19 percent of the oblast on 2 October 2032 — more than a year after the Duma elections expected in September 2031. ISW would not commit even to that, saying it is not prepared to assess that Russian forces can take the rest of Donetsk on any timeline, with the Fortress Belt's urban fights still ahead and the rate slowing since 2025, so long as Western support holds near current levels. Russia has fought for Kostiantynivka for 11 months without taking it, and made no confirmed advance on Slovyansk between 2 and 6 September despite intensifying its assaults. On 5 September neither army advanced anywhere.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 6, 2026

Russia Is Trying to Join Two Axes Into a Drive on Zaporizhzhia City

ISW assessed that Russia's separate pushes at Orikhiv and Hulyaipole are meant to become one — a joined drive on Zaporizhzhia City that would bypass Ukraine's south-facing defences. Around Hulyaipole the advance is real but slow: Russian forces have moved seven to eight kilometres, and as far as eleven, north and west of the town since the spring, taking Myrne and Luhivske, reaching the southeastern edge of Vozdvyzhivka and coming within 1.5 kilometres of Hulyaipilske, according to Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets. Not all of it has held. Geolocated footage published on 5 September puts Ukrainian forces in control of Lisne, Rivne, Dolynka and Kopani, ground Russia had advanced into or claimed. And the northward drive along the Haichur River is widening the front and thinning the force meant for Orikhiv, with one Russian division pulled away to meet Ukrainian counterattacks in its rear.

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Institute for the Study of War

Sep 3, 2026

Ukraine Clears Ground North of Kupiansk While Russia Crawls In Through Pipelines

Ukrainian forces cleared a forested area up to the western outskirts of Dvorichna and northeast of Zapadne, north of Kupiansk, geolocated on 2 September; the 2nd Khartiya Corps put its own tally at a further four square kilometres, 13.5 since 30 August. Inside the city it is harder. Russian troops have infiltrated northern Kupiansk on the right bank of the Oskil, working in through Holubivka, while on the left bank they press toward the Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi rail station to narrow Ukraine's bridgehead — moving through disused underground pipelines to stay off drone cameras, traffic Ukrainian strikes on that pipeline are now constraining. No Russian advance was confirmed through 6 September.

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Institute for the Study of WarEuromaidan PressInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 3, 2026

Russian forces seized Vasylivka, Blahodatne, Dovzhanka and Slyzneve northeast of Kharkiv City and completed an encirclement of 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

— Russian Ministry of Defense False

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Institute for the Study of War

Sep 1, 2026

In August, Ukraine Retook More Ground Than Russia Seized

The Institute for the Study of War's monthly accounting for August recorded Ukrainian forces liberating more ground than Russia seized. Russian forces took about 90.35 square kilometres across the theatre — 2.91 a day, or 123.53 including infiltration — while Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Lyman and Oleksandrivka directions liberated at least 129.81 square kilometres, a figure ISW calls conservative because its method understates the still-unfolding Lyman advance. Russia's seizures were a fraction of the 505.55 square kilometres it took in August 2025, and cost more: Ukraine's General Staff reported 42,020 Russian casualties, a second straight month above 40,000, which ISW works out to 465 per square kilometre seized. Almost all Russia's gains were in the Fortress Belt, where it holds positions across 72 percent of Kostiantynivka but has still not taken the city, ten months into the attempt.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Sep 1, 2026

Russian forces seized 15 settlements equal to 270 square kilometres in Donetsk Oblast in August 2026, stand between 1.5 and 4 kilometres from the eastern outskirts of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and southern Druzhkivka, seized Svyatohirsk and Kozacha Lopan, encircled 13 Ukrainian battalions of around 5,000 servicemembers near Pisky-Radkivski, and are accelerating their advance as Ukrainian defences collapse.

— Vladimir Putin False

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Institute for the Study of War

Aug 29, 2026

Ukraine Keeps Taking Ground on the Axis Russia Named as Its Next Objective

Geolocated footage published on 29 August shows Ukrainian forces advancing in Dorozhnye, southeast of Dobropillya, and footage from 28 and 29 August shows them holding or gaining ground west and south of Novyi Donbas against Russian claims to the contrary. It is the second consecutive assessment putting Ukraine forward on the axis Russia had designated for the southern arm of its Fortress Belt encirclement. Russia's defence ministry claimed Novoandriivka, northeast of Dobropillya, the same day. Neither side reported ground activity at Pokrovsk.

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Institute for the Study of War

Aug 29, 2026

Russia's political leadership has ordered its forces to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by 31 December 2026; the military leadership replied that the order was unrealistic and asked for 31 March 2027 instead. Neither date is achievable given the battlefield situation.

— Pavlo Palisa

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 26, 2026

Ukraine Advances at Both Ends of the Line, and a Russian Blogger Says So Too

Geolocated footage published on 26 August shows Ukrainian advances in Vodyanske and Krasnopodillya south of Dobropillya, and no Russian positions in Matyasheve, west of Vodyanske or in Dobropillya itself — the axis Russia named as its next objective. In the north, Ukrainian forces advanced southwest of Dvorichna above Kupyansk. The sharpest evidence comes from the other side: a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger reported Ukrainian counterattacks near Katerynivka, Nove and Ridkodub southeast of Borova, said Ukrainian forces had seized the ground between Nove and Katerynivka, and assessed that Russian troops in the Shandryholove salient face encirclement.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 26, 2026

A Flag Planted Eleven Kilometres Beyond the Front

Two more Russian claims of capture rest on footage ISW assesses to be AI-altered. Russian sources published video on 26 August of a flag-raising in northwestern Pysarivka, north of Sumy City; ISW judges parts of it likely synthetic and finds Ukrainian forces still in control. The defence ministry claimed Nizhenka, southwest of Oleksandrivka, with footage of a tank brigade raising a flag — about eleven kilometres from the nearest observed Russian position, which makes the claim not an exaggerated advance but an invented one. A milblogger separately claimed the recapture of Yalta, which Ukraine reported liberating on 12 August.

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Institute for the Study of War

Aug 23, 2026

We believe that in 2026 we will reach an equal amount of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russians and liberated by us. As of now, 990 square kilometres have been occupied since the start of the year, and on 820 square kilometres we have restored control. But by the end of 2026 we are reaching a parity number of kilometres.

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy

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UkrinformUkrinformInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 18, 2026

Both Trackers Now Put Russia in the Red

For the first time this summer the two open-source trackers agree that Russia is going backwards. Russia Matters' report card of August 18 records, for the four weeks from July 21, a net Russian loss of 12 square miles on DeepState's data — against a gain of 15 in the preceding four weeks — and a loss of 2 square miles on its own summation of ISW's map layers. A week earlier the two pointed opposite ways. They agree on the sign, not the size, and neither is a calendar-month figure.

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Russia Matters

Aug 17, 2026

Four Days in Which the Front Did Not Move

For two consecutive days — August 16 and 17 — the Institute for the Study of War could not confirm a single advance by either army anywhere on the 1,200-kilometre front, with Russian attacks failing across a dozen directions from Sumy to western Zaporizhzhia and no ground activity at all in Kherson for four days running. Six geolocated exceptions marked the edges of the freeze, and five ran Ukraine's way: Russia's one confirmed gain came near Vozdvyzhivka on August 14, when a repelled mechanised assault led ISW to assess it had likely taken Olenokostyantynivka and Zelene north-west of Hulyaipole, while Ukrainian troops cleared Russian infiltrators from western Kostiantynivka on August 15 and the town's eastern side on August 17. ISW added a rare caveat against itself — footage suggests Russia has consolidated in Kostiantynivka's south-east beyond its own maps. Behind the stillness both sides worked: Russia kept shaping the Fortress Belt, striking bridges over the Kazennyi Torets, the Novokramatorsk plant and Dobropillya drone stations, and reinforced the Lyman axis with the 673rd Separate Anti-Aircraft Missile Battalion, seen for the first time in the war; Ukraine's August 12 southern counteroffensive continued around Sichneve and toward Komar.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarKyiv PostNasha Niva

Aug 15, 2026

Russia's Conquest Videos Start Coming Back as AI Forgeries

Three days after Ukraine announced its largest recapture of the war, a Russian milblogger published flag-raising videos dated 14 and 15 August showing troops retaking some thirty settlements — many of them the villages Ukraine had just claimed. ISW assessed much of the batch as likely generated or altered by artificial intelligence, or old footage presented as new, and reached the same verdict on a video from Oskil, a settlement it has never observed Russian forces come within 17 kilometres of. Staged proof is not new here — a captured Russian soldier said on 8 August that his command had ordered him to raise a flag for the camera — but synthetic video removes the need to send anyone. Much of the correction came from Russian sources: Kremlin-aligned bloggers publicly refuted the defence ministry's claims at Kostiantynivka, Dobropillya and Kudiivka.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of WarNasha Niva

Aug 12, 2026

Ukraine Announces Its Largest Liberation Since 2022 — and Three Trackers Count It Three Ways

Ukraine disclosed on 12 August a counteroffensive it had run quietly since 29 January. Its Airborne Assault Forces said troops in the Oleksandrivka sector had liberated more than 745 square kilometres, cleared 300 more of infiltrators and retaken 26 settlements, driving Russian forces out of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — by area Ukraine's largest recapture since autumn 2022. Three trackers counted it three ways. ISW assessed roughly 626.69 square kilometres, cautioning that its conservative mapping likely understates the advance. DeepState recorded a 241-square-kilometre expansion of Ukrainian-held ground against a 118-square-kilometre contraction of Russian-held ground, the difference absorbed by a shrinking grey zone, and confirmed 19 of the 26 villages. Ukraine's own figures do not reconcile either: commander-in-chief Mykhailo Drapatyi gave 450 and 490 square kilometres for the two phases, a sum of 940.

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Institute for the Study of WarX (self-published post)NV (Novoye Vremya)EUobserverKyiv PostNasha NivaInstitute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 12, 2026

As the South Celebrates, Russia Grinds On Toward the Donbas Cities

The same assessments that recorded Ukraine's southern gains recorded Russia still inching toward the Fortress Belt. ISW confirmed a recent Russian advance in the Kostiantynivka–Druzhkivka tactical area — geolocated footage from August 11 showed a Russian soldier in civilian clothing, an act of perfidy under the Geneva Conventions, trying to throw an anti-tank mine into a Ukrainian-held building in western Kostiantynivka — and a Russian milblogger claimed the seizure of Petrivka, south-west of Druzhkivka. It was a modest but confirmed shift after a fortnight in which the approaches had barely moved. Elsewhere the picture was mixed and mostly static. Russian forces kept attacking around Dobropillya without a confirmed advance as Ukraine counterattacked near Toretske; near Lyman, Russia again struck a Siverskyi Donets crossing at Mayaky with glide bombs — the third month running — but still made no crossing; and in the Kupyansk direction Ukraine pushed into northern Zapadne even as a Ukrainian spokesman conceded Russia likely controls most of Pishchane to the south-east. At Chasiv Yar a Kremlin-aligned milblogger admitted the town's microdistricts remain contested grey zones and that taking Stinky to the north was a distant prospect, and acknowledged that Ukraine still holds Klynove — a village Russia's defence ministry had claimed captured back in December 2025.

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Institute for the Study of War

Our reading

Aug 11, 2026

The Trackers Cross Over: One Says Russia Gained, Another Says It Lost

Two weeks after the open-source trackers agreed on July's figure, they separated again — and this time disagreed on which way the front moved. Russia Matters' August 12 card put Russia's four-week gain at 33 square miles on DeepState's data but a net loss of 9 on its own summation of ISW's map layers; a fortnight earlier both had shown Russian gains, of 13 and 24. The Economist's rolling 30-day estimate moved a third way, from 13 square miles to about 1. The likely cause is timing: Ukraine's Oleksandrivka recapture, announced August 12 but fought since January, entered each tracker's map at different moments and in different amounts — visible in the running totals, where the ISW-based stock of Russian-held territory falls (45,676 to 45,647 square miles) while DeepState's rises (45,168 to 45,179). The caveat Russia Matters states itself: its ISW column sums three separate ISW map layers, not a figure ISW publishes, and infiltrated ground is held far more weakly than seized ground. The same four weeks can read as a Russian advance and a retreat at once.

Compared

Russia MattersRussia Matters

Aug 8, 2026

A Prisoner Confirms the Flag-Raisings Are Staged

The gap between what Russia announces and what it holds acquired a first-hand witness. A Ukrainian brigade fighting in the Hulyaipole direction reported on August 8 that it had captured a Russian soldier who had been ordered by his own command to raise a flag over Zirnytsya for a video staging a Russian advance. Russia's defence ministry had announced the settlement's capture on August 5, and geolocated footage that day did show a serviceman raising a flag just east of it — but ISW assesses Ukrainian forces still control Zirnytsya. It was not the only announcement outrunning the evidence: the ministry also claimed the seizure of Ivanivka, north-east of Kharkiv City, and Anyskyne in the Velykyi Burluk direction on August 7 and 8, neither confirmed by geolocated footage. Testimony from a captured participant that flag-raisings are being ordered as propaganda turns a pattern ISW had been inferring across the summer into something a soldier ordered to carry it out has now described.

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Institute for the Study of War

Aug 7, 2026

Putin's Year-End Donbas Deadline Meets Numbers That Don't Reach It

Russia has given itself a hard target and until the end of the year to reach it. In its 7 August assessment the Institute for the Study of War reported that Vladimir Putin has set 31 December 2026 as the deadline to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast, with Russian forces concentrating on the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions to encircle the Fortress Belt from the southwest. ISW called the timeline "extremely unrealistic": Russia lost ground in both areas in June — 3.12 square kilometres near Pokrovsk, 2.23 near Dobropillya — then advanced 45.96 and 34.67 in July, faster, but far short of what a year-end capture would need. The push came wrapped in stagecraft. The Kremlin released audio of Putin questioning a Dobropillya-axis commander who assured him the timelines were realistic and claimed Pokrovsk taken. The voice identified itself as Colonel Shikhabidov — an officer multiple Russian sources say was killed in May 2025 — and Putin never used his name. ISW read it as one more sign that Russian units are feeding their president a fictional picture of the war.

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Institute for the Study of WarNV (Novoye Vremya)

Aug 4, 2026

Russia's Rate of Advance Roughly Halves Over Four Weeks

Russia's pace of advance slowed sharply in the four weeks to August 4. DeepState recorded a net Russian gain of 13 square miles over July 7 to August 4, against 31 square miles the previous four weeks. Russia Matters' analysis of ISW map data put the net gain higher, at 24 square miles, and The Economist estimated 13 square miles over its own 30 days — the three figures differ because each tracker defines and sums control differently, but all point to a decelerating front. As of August 4 the two main trackers still agreed on the total: DeepState counted 45,168 square miles of Ukraine under Russian control and ISW 45,676, roughly 19 and 20 percent of the country including Crimea and the Donbas taken before 2022. Russia Matters cautioned, echoing ISW, that comparisons across periods are complicated because infiltration areas are held far more weakly than seized ground, which flatters raw gain figures.

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Russia Matters

Aug 4, 2026

Ukraine Counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka Direction

Ukrainian forces have run a series of successful tactical counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction, south-west of Novopavlivka, since mid-July. Citing Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, ISW reported on August 3 that Ukrainian forces had liberated Myrne and Rybne, seized Voskresenka and Novohryhorivka, and reached the Mokri Yaly River near Filiya, forcing Russian infiltration groups to withdraw. ISW's August 5 assessment carried the movement forward, recording confirmed Ukrainian advances in the Kostiantynivka–Druzhkivka tactical area and in the Slovyansk and Oleksandrivka directions on August 4 and 5, while finding no evidence for the Russian-claimed attacks in the Kupyansk direction. The gains are village-scale and do not reverse the overall balance — the front remains net-positive for Russia — but they are the most substantial Ukrainian forward movement of the cycle, and they land just as the pace of Russian advance is itself slowing.

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Institute for the Study of WarInstitute for the Study of War

Aug 3, 2026

More Staged Seizures, and ISW Says Russia's Northern Command Is Misleading the Kremlin

ISW documented a further run of Russian seizure claims that geolocated evidence does not support, and assessed that Russia's Northern Grouping of Forces and high command are likely misrepresenting gains to the Kremlin in a sector largely stagnant for nearly two years. Russian sources circulated footage of a drone dropping a flag onto a building in Velyka Pysarivka — a building Ukrainian forces then destroyed — as purported proof of capture. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have seized Bilyi Kolodyaz, north-east of Kharkiv, and Ustinivka, north-east of Velykyi Burluk; Ukrainian corps operating in both areas said the settlements remain contested, and ISW confirmed neither. The pattern of staged flag-raisings, some using reportedly AI-altered footage, extends this front's standing thread: on ground that barely moves, the manufacture of the appearance of movement has itself become part of the war.

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Institute for the Study of War

Aug 1, 2026

Russian Advance Reaches 37 Square Kilometers in July

The Institute for the Study of War calculated that Russian forces advanced in 37.85 square kilometres in July 2026, an average of 1.22 a day. Even including infiltration areas, the 121.56 total is a fraction of the 455.74 seized in July 2025. More infiltration into Kostiantynivka has not produced the city's seizure or any operationally significant objective, ISW assessed, while the Kremlin continued to claim 18.49 square kilometres a day. The second tracker's July count carries its own internal divergence, recorded side by side rather than averaged: DeepState reported a net Russian gain of 36 square kilometres as its map showed on the day, then added that once 52 square kilometres of late-confirmed Ukrainian recaptures across May to July are booked to when they happened, the July net could be closer to 88. DeepState also called Russia's goal of taking all of Donetsk Oblast in 2026 unrealistic at that pace.

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Institute for the Study of WarUkrinform

Our reading

Aug 1, 2026

Trackers Converge on Russian Net Gains for July

After late July's divergence where one OSINT compilation recorded a net loss of 1 square mile, the two primary trackers converged by August 1 on a slow Russian net advance. ISW's monthly wrap-up assessed a 37.85 sq km (14.6 sq mi) advance for July 2026. Independently, Russia Matters’ analysis of DeepState data recorded a 10 sq mi net gain from June 30 to July 28. The figures align closely, resolving the previous cycle's sign disagreement and confirming that the front moved forward for Russia at an incremental pace.

Compared

Institute for the Study of WarRussia Matters

Aug 1, 2026

A Record Cost for Minimal Territorial Gains

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered 42,860 casualties in July 2026, marking a new monthly high for the war. Measured against the 37.85 sq km seized in the same period, this equates to an unprecedented 1,132 casualties per square kilometer captured. This underscores the increasing human cost of Russia's optimization for positional warfare.

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Institute for the Study of War

Jul 31, 2026

Ukrainian Advances West of Orikhiv Amid Kostiantynivka Pressures

Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with geolocated footage from July 29 confirming new positions southeast of Novoandriivka (west of Orikhiv). Concurrently in Donetsk Oblast, Al Jazeera reported that Russian forces were 'effectively cutting off' Kostiantynivka, the southernmost of Ukraine's four fortress cities, though ISW maintained on August 1 that Russia had not yet seized the city.

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Institute for the Study of WarRussia Matters

Earlier this year

Jul 29, 2026Eight More Claimed Seizures, and the Distance to the Evidence
Jul 28, 2026Ukraine's Foothold Inside Russia Falls to Two Square Miles
Jul 28, 2026The Trackers Stop Agreeing on Which Way the Front Moved
Jul 27, 2026
Four Straight Days of Zero, and the Slowest Week of the YearFor four consecutive daily assessments — 24, 25, 26 and 27 July — the Institute for the Study of War concluded that neither side made a confirmed advance anywhere on the front. That is ISW's strictest standard: confirmation requires geolocated evidence. DeepState put a number on the same stall, assessing Russian-controlled area growing 9.76 square kilometres over the week, about 1.4 a day, against 2-3 a day in June and early July, 4-5 in March and 8-14 a day in late 2025. Across the four Donetsk sectors Russia has concentrated on, it recorded 6.92 square kilometres taken, down from 17.33 the week before. Ground moved the other way too: near Filia, 6.69 square kilometres fell out of the occupation zone into DeepState's grey zone and Ukrainian forces cleared 5.42 more into permanent control — not enough, DeepState stressed, to reduce the occupied area overall. The run ended on 28 July, when ISW geolocated a Russian advance in western Kostiantynivka.
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Institute for the Study of Warunderstandingwar.org95% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Institute for the Study of Warunderstandingwar.org95% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Institute for the Study of Warcriticalthreats.org95% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Institute for the Study of Warunderstandingwar.org95% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Interfax-Ukraineen.interfax.com.ua80% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.
Jul 26, 2026Five Claimed Seizures Against a Confirmed-Advance Ledger of Zero
Jul 22, 2026“Ukrainian forces reclaimed 743 square kilometres of occupied territory so far this year, and I am handing my successor an army conducting offensive operations.” — Oleksandr Syrskyi±Fact check: mixed
Jul 22, 2026“Russian forces seized 2,226 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in the first six months of 2026.” — Russian Ministry of Defense✗Fact check: false
Jul 21, 2026Three Trackers, One Month, Three Different Answers
Jul 20, 2026“Russian forces have established complete control over the M-14 (R-280) Rostov–Crimea highway against Ukrainian drone strikes, and all energy facilities in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast have been secured.” — Yevgeny Balitsky✗Fact check: false
Jul 18, 2026“Russian forces have entered or nearly seized a string of Donetsk-area settlements — including Dobropillya, Hannivka, Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, Svitle and Krasnoyarske — reached within five kilometers of Kramatorsk, and seized Myrne northeast of Pokrovsk.” — Valery Gerasimov✗Fact check: false
Jul 16, 2026FP-9 Ballistic Missile Tested
Jul 15, 2026Mid-2026 Troop Deployments
Jul 14, 2026Project Freyja Announced
Jul 1, 2026War of Attrition & Stalled Frontlines
Jun 25, 2026Dnipropetrovsk Liberation
Jun 15, 2026Kyiv-Sumy Defense Line
May 25, 2026“The frontline has essentially frozen, with the focus shifting heavily toward long-range strikes and systemic disruption of logistics rather than sweeping territorial maneuvers.” — Michael Kofman✓Fact check: true

Earlier

Mar 13, 2025Russia Regains Sudzha
Feb 24, 2025Three Years of War
Oct 28, 2024North Korean Troops Confirmed in Russia
Aug 6, 2024Ukraine's Kursk Incursion
May 10, 2024Renewed Kharkiv Offensive
Feb 17, 2024Fall of Avdiivka
Dec 1, 2023War Enters a Stalemate
Jun 8, 2023Ukraine's 2023 Counteroffensive Begins
Jun 6, 2023Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam
May 20, 2023Fall of Bakhmut
Nov 11, 2022Liberation of Kherson
Oct 8, 2022First Attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge
Sep 30, 2022Russia Annexes Four Ukrainian Oblasts
Sep 6, 2022Kharkiv Counteroffensive
May 20, 2022Capture of Mariupol
Apr 14, 2022Sinking of the Moskva
Apr 2, 2022Russian Retreat from Kyiv
Feb 24, 2022Russia Invades Ukraine

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