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Russian Mobilisation

There is still no new mobilisation order, but recruitment is leaning harder on force. Four Russian rights groups told Verstka they received complaints from at least 33 regions and Crimea, between mid-August and mid-October, of men detained and pressed into signing contracts. CNN found indebted and ill men targeted, and regions paying bounties of up to 300,000 roubles per recruit. These are complaints, not verified cases; an analyst says the Kremlin tolerates the practice rather than ordering it.

The autumn draft is being enforced on the street too. Since mid-October Moscow police have stopped young men in the metro and sent conscripts to the army within a day or two, rights projects report.

Some men are leaving. Idite Lesom, which helps soldiers desert, says it helped almost 150 do so in August, and that requests this summer ran three times last summer’s. The government bill delaying death benefits for families was due its first reading on October 29. The confirmed floor of Russian dead stood at 281,753 names in mid-October.

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The whole story5 chapters
The state of it — as of October 29, 2026
281,753
Russian soldiers confirmed dead by name — a floor, not a total (Mediazona)
2,441,630
authorised strength of Russia’s armed forces after the fourth increase this year
None
mobilisation orders issued since September’s Duma election

Today

A Desertion Helpline Says Its Work Has Tripled

Idite Lesom, an exile group that helps Russian soldiers desert, says it helped almost 150 people desert in August, out of about 3,600 since September 2022. By its own count, requests in summer 2026 ran about one and a half times spring’s and three times the previous summer’s, at 150 to 200 a day. Its head, Grigory Sverdlin, gave the figures in an interview published on October 29 and recorded in early autumn. They are the group’s count of its own cases, not a measure of desertion across the army.

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Meduzameduza.io85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.

Moscow Police Sweep the Metro for Conscripts

Police in Moscow are stopping young men in the metro, at public-service centres and on the street, and sending conscription-age men to the army, rights projects report. Idite Lesom received six complaints between October 13 and 21. In one, two men were seized near a metro station, one of them with a medical exemption. Detainees are taken to the city’s assembly point on Ugreshskaya Street. From there they are dispatched “within one or two days”, according to Timofey Vaskin of Shkola Prizyvnika. These are conscripts for the autumn draft, not contract soldiers, and the accounts come from relatives and rights groups.

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The Moscow Timesru.themoscowtimes.com85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.

Earlier this month

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Men Forced Into Contracts in at Least 33 Regions, Rights Groups Say

Four Russian rights groups told Verstka they had complaints from at least 33 regions and annexed Crimea, between August 12 and October 12, of men detained and pressured into signing military contracts. Idite Lesom logged 33 such complaints in September alone. CNN, reporting separately on October 26, found indebted, ill and alcohol-dependent men being targeted. It also found regions such as Ryazan paying people 50,000 to 300,000 roubles for each recruit they bring in. These are complaints, not verified cases. The analyst Janis Kluge says the practice is not ordered by the Kremlin but is “at least tolerated”.

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Verstkaverstka.media70% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.CNNcnn.com85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Kyiv Postkyivpost.com85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.
Today we already have a figure of nearly 46,000 foreigners who have signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, from 151 countries around the world.

— Dmytro Usov

Not yet checked

Unverified — a Ukrainian official’s count of enemy recruitment, up from 28,000 at the previous count; he put this year’s contracts at 16,168 against a plan of 18,500. Russia publishes no figures for foreign recruits and no independent count exists to check it.

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UATV (Ukraine's international broadcaster)uatv.ua55% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.

Draft Checks Reach Airports, Markets and House Sales

Checks on military registration are spreading into daily life, and fall hardest on new citizens. Activists documented naturalised men being handed conscription notices on arrival at Yekaterinburg’s Koltsovo airport; reports of recruiters at every airport are unverified. In St Petersburg, police and draft staff raided Sennoy Market after Friday prayers and served several dozen naturalised men. At least 15 estate agencies ask sellers for an extract from the electronic summons register, which the law does not require. A lawyer for conscientious objectors reports Moscow’s National Guard detaining a reservist, telling him ‘mobilization is underway’, then releasing him. None of this is a call-up order.

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The Named Russian Dead Pass 280,000, and the BBC Puts the Real Toll Above Half a Million

BBC Russian, Mediazona and volunteers have now confirmed by name 281,753 Russian military dead of the full-scale invasion, up from 239,354 in mid-August. Volunteers who signed contracts after the invasion are about 35% of them; prisoners about 10%, half their 2023 share; mobilised men about 8%. The count is a floor. The BBC estimates the true toll at 512,278 to 626,118, on military experts’ view that open sources capture 45–55% of deaths. Separately, an unnamed senior NATO official told Bloomberg that Russia lost more than 50,000 men killed and wounded in September, up to 28,000 of them killed — an allied estimate, not a count.

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Recruiting Runs Behind Last Year, the Bonuses Climb, and the Net Widens

Contract recruitment is slipping. By Janis Kluge’s count from regional budget data, 29,900 men signed in September against 31,900 a year earlier, and 263,000 from January to September against 292,000 — a pace that would miss the 409,000 target for 2026. The average regional sign-up bonus has risen 30% in a year, to 1.9m roubles, though St Petersburg has just cut its own. Irkutsk now pays intermediaries 1.5m roubles for each foreigner recruited. Relatives describe men pressed into contracts, among them a 63-year-old Penza pastry chef seized during the Duma vote. ‘Coercive mobilization is already happening,’ Kluge says; Carnegie’s Dara Massicot judges the supply still ‘sufficient’, with no 2022-style deficit.

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Radio Free Europe/Radio Libertyrferl.org85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT)notes.citeam.org75% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.

Russia Moves to Pay Less, and Later, for Its Dead

The state is trimming what it pays when a soldier dies. A government bill submitted with the 2027 budget would make families wait up to seven months for the lump-sum death benefit, instead of 30 days, from January 2027, and freeze its indexation until 2028; the government says the wait lets it find every entitled relative. Its first reading is set for October 29. Regions are cutting too: Smolensk’s governor lowered the family payment from 1m to 700,000 roubles on October 16, a day after Samara abolished its 1m payment. By The Insider’s count, at least eight regions have cut or scrapped it this year.

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PPT.ruppt.ru65% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT)notes.citeam.org75% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Caspian Postcaspianpost.com55% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Nasha Nivanashaniva.com75% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.

The Sign-Up Bonus Stops Rising Everywhere

After a year of rising bonuses, some regions now pay recruits less. St Petersburg cut its city payment to new contract soldiers from 3.5m to 1m roubles, per its government website on October 15, keeping the old rate only for drone units, and scrapped a 600,000-rouble payment from employers. Novosibirsk cut its regional bonus from 2.5m to 1.6m roubles. Lipetsk city went the other way, nearly tripling its payment to 1.7m. The total bill still grows: Re: Russia estimates payments to soldiers and the families of the dead passed 3 trillion roubles in six months, about 1 trillion more than in early 2025.

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A Smaller Autumn Draft, and Three Drafts of Law That Widen Who Can Be Called

Russia’s autumn conscription will send about 120,000 men into service between October and December, down from 135,000 a year earlier. It is the routine one-year draft, not a mobilisation; the General Staff said conscripts would not fight in Ukraine, an assurance Moscow also gave in 2022. Three measures were in preparation by mid-October, none adopted: raising women’s maximum service age from 45 to 50, an Emergencies Ministry draft to call reservists into the fire service, and new military-police powers to hunt deserters. By October 15 the Duma had also passed at first reading a bill letting conscripts serve in fire units, barring them from the war zone.

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The Kyiv Independentkyivindependent.com85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT)notes.citeam.org75% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Radio Free Europe/Radio Libertyrferl.org85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Meduzameduza.io85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT)notes.citeam.org75% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.
Russian forces suffered 46,320 casualties in September 2026.

— General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Not yet checked

Unverified — a belligerent’s count of its enemy’s losses, with no independent access to check it. ISW relays it as the third month running above 40,000 and the highest of 2026, and gives no recruitment figure for the month to set against it.

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Institute for the Study of Warunderstandingwar.org95% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.

This quarter

14

A Fourth Decree Enlarges the Army on Paper. No Call-Up Has Followed the Vote

Putin signed a decree on September 28 raising the authorised strength of the armed forces to 2,441,630, including 1,550,500 servicemen — about 15,500 more than in July and the fourth increase this year. It is not a mobilisation order, and by October 9 none had followed the election, Jamestown found. Contract recruitment has been falling since 2025, and ISW judges it replaces fewer soldiers than Russia loses; rights groups received reports of men coerced into contracts from at least 17 regions. ISW wrote on October 8 that commanders are ‘reportedly pressing Putin for a massive mobilization’, citing no source.

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In essence, Russia has already begun additional mobilisation, it is expanding the scale of recruitment to its ranks, using various methods for this.

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy

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Leaving Before the Polls Close

Requests for emergency emigration help from Russia have risen nearly eightfold since the start of summer, according to the anti-war project Ark, whose own tally shows daily requests up from about 70 to about 120 since July. Searches for ‘how to leave’ and ‘mobilisation’ reached their highest level since early 2023 over the summer and the first ten days of September. Tens of thousands have received mobilisation notices, and an electronic summons register now imposes an automatic exit ban the moment a notice is issued. In early September a 24-year-old who finished his service in 2024 was stopped at Krasnodar and served with one — the first such case reported at that crossing. None of this is a mobilisation decision. It is the machinery for one, and the behaviour of people who expect it.

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Talk of a new Russian mobilisation is ‘utter nonsense’.

— Vladimir Putin

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Russia Turns to the Medically Unfit to Guard Its Own Rear

Putin said on 5 September he backs letting volunteers graded category D — unfit for military service — join regional air defence formations such as the BARS reserve to protect Russian facilities from Ukrainian drones, and that air defence needs a single commander rather than a coordinating body. It follows measures pushing the job outward: private companies have had to fund air defences at their own sites since late May, and Putin's 24 August decree lets the state seize critical infrastructure whose owners fail to protect it — not nationalisation, he said, but a way to force air defences in.

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Institute for the Study of Warunderstandingwar.org95% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Institute for the Study of Warunderstandingwar.org95% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.
There is no scenario today that would require mobilization. This is an information attack by the enemy ahead of the State Duma elections in an attempt to influence the result. This is simply a planned information operation.

— Vladimir Putin

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The Machinery for a Call-Up Keeps Being Built; the Recruiters Are Still Making Their Numbers

Two readings of Russia's manpower position now sit side by side. The legal machinery a call-up would run on keeps being built: on July 22 the Duma widened which people with criminal convictions may sign military contracts during mobilisation, martial law or wartime, and on August 20 the government tabled a bill fining companies up to 1 million roubles, or suspending them 90 days, for defying a governor or an operational headquarters on mobilisation matters. Against that, Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, reading regional budget data, counts about 93,000 contracts signed in the second quarter — roughly a thousand a day, stabilising after a decline since late 2024, at an average regional cost up 30 percent in a year to 1.8-1.9 million roubles. He reads that as easing the pressure for a call-up; CEPA, surveying the preparations on September 3, calls his a minority view. Searches for “exemption from mobilisation” on Yandex reached 97,380 in July, the second-highest since September 2022.

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This Time They Are Leaving Before the Decree

Russians of call-up age have begun leaving the country in advance of any mobilisation announcement — the reverse of 2022, when departures followed the decree. Russia's own Federal Customs Service data, cited by The Moscow Times, show more than 19,000 people a day crossing into Georgia at Verkhny Lars on 15 and 16 August and more than 20,000 on 18 August; Politico put the week's total at about 113,000. The rights group School of the Conscript reports a rise in requests for help, mostly from reservists, and says authorities have been gathering reservists' data through employers and tracing relatives' addresses, with men summoned to enlistment offices and issued orders naming the unit they would report to. Its director Alexey Tabalov describes the groundwork for a call-up that need never be declared: "It's enough to send, say, 10 buses to a particular metallurgical plant and pick up a predetermined number of specific people straight from their workplaces."

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NV (Novoye Vremya)english.nv.ua80% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.
The Russian General Staff has prepared a scenario for the additional mobilisation of 600,000 people across 2026 and 2027 — 300,000 in each year — chiefly to bring units fighting Ukraine up to strength; Putin will most likely decide after the 18–20 September State Duma elections.

— Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine's Ministry of Defence (HUR)

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Ukrainska Pravdapravda.com.ua80% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.
The Kremlin is preparing to mobilise around 300,000 servicemembers after the September 18–20 State Duma elections, in part to reinforce Russian positions in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy

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Institute for the Study of Warunderstandingwar.org95% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.The Jamestown Foundationjamestown.org72% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.Euronewseuronews.com85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.
Russian forces have suffered around 267,000 personnel casualties along the entire frontline since the beginning of 2026, including about 155,000 killed, and roughly 70 to 80 percent of all Russian losses occur in the Kostiantynivka direction.

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy

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Institute for the Study of Warunderstandingwar.org95% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.
Russia could ask North Korea to provide up to 50,000 additional troops during a potential September meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

— Vadym Skibitskyi

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The Confirmed Russian Death Toll Passes 239,000 — and Falls Further Behind the War

Mediazona, working with the BBC Russian service and a team of volunteers, has now confirmed by name 239,354 Russian military personnel killed between February 24, 2022 and August 13, 2026. The list is built only from publicly verifiable material — obituaries, relatives' social-media posts, local media, and statements by regional authorities — and its compilers stress it is not exhaustive, because not every death is publicly reported. Among those identified are 87,749 volunteers who signed contracts after the invasion began, 26,416 recruited prisoners, 19,778 mobilised men and 7,533 officers; volunteers have been the largest single category of the dead since September 2024, and the officer share of fatalities has fallen from around 10% early in the war to between 2% and 3%. A date of death is known in 221,500 cases, about 93% of the total. The more consequential finding is how far the count now lags the fighting. Of more than 77,000 deaths confirmed since the start of 2026, no more than a tenth occurred in 2026; the rest died between 2022 and 2025. Mediazona attributes the widening delay to the shape of the current war rather than to any slowdown in losses: the drone-controlled "grey zone" between the armies now runs for tens of kilometres and bodies frequently cannot be recovered from it, small-group infiltration tactics leave the dead where they fall until the front moves twelve to twenty kilometres beyond them, and in 2026 the front has barely moved at all. Without a body or a court ruling declaring a missing man dead there is no death certificate, and therefore no obituary to find. The team adds 5,000 to 6,000 unique records a month in normal conditions, and has taken to cross-checking leaked unit rosters and missing-persons appeals to close the gap. Separately, it maintains an excess-mortality estimate built with Meduza from the national Probate Registry, last updated on May 9, 2026 and covering deaths only to late December 2025. The figure is therefore a floor on Russian deaths, not a measure of them, and by construction it is least complete for the months that matter most to the question of whether Russia can replace its losses. Claimed totals are far higher and are not comparable: Ukraine's General Staff put cumulative Russian personnel losses at about 1,467,320 as of August 17 without separating the killed from the wounded, missing and captured, and on July 31 Volodymyr Zelensky put Russian casualties at roughly 1.6 million including some 700,000 killed.

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Mediazonaen.zona.media80% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.The Kyiv Independentkyivindependent.com85% credibility · not yet testedAn opening estimate from its institutional history — none of its claims checked yet.
Putin's plan is not particularly complicated… after the so-called elections, he plans an additional rapid mobilization of several hundred thousand Russians by the end of the year, plus the same number for the year after.

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy

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Earlier this year

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