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Black Sea Shipping

The Black Sea is now deadlier for seafarers than the Gulf, and the ships hit off NATO coasts now include one bound for a NATO port.

On October 23 a drone sank the Khoryv, a Comoros-flagged cargo ship heading for the Danube mouth, just outside Romania’s waters; one sailor died and three are missing. On October 28 three sea drones struck the Contship Jet, a container ship sailing from Haifa to Romania’s Constanța, off Bulgaria. It sank, and all 18 crew were rescued. No one has claimed either attack: Romania’s president blames Russia’s aggression, and Bulgaria’s prime minister says suspicion of Russia cannot be proven.

By Ambrey and IMO figures, more than 570 ships have been attacked in the Black Sea this year and at least 40 seafarers killed, against 24 around Hormuz. Ukraine’s exporters are rerouting: Kernel’s oil sales halved over the summer, and Constanța has more than tripled its Ukrainian grain.

Russia’s own grain exports through its Black Sea and Azov terminals fell 94 per cent in September, by industry data. On October 28 it reopened the Sea of Azov to grain ships for the first time since July, with a naval escort planned.

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The whole story4 chapters
The state of it — as of October 29, 2026
570+
ships attacked in the Black Sea in 2026; at least 40 seafarers killed
9 ships
merchant ships struck in Romanian and Bulgarian waters in October, to the 26th
−94%
Russia’s September grain exports through its Black Sea and Azov ports, year on year

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Sea Drones Sink a Container Ship Bound for Romania’s Constanța off Bulgaria

Three sea drones struck the Liberian-flagged, Greek-managed container ship Contship Jet on October 28, about 21 nautical miles off Shabla in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, Bulgaria’s defence minister said. Sailing from Haifa to Constanța, with some containers of lithium-ion batteries and flammable goods, it sank the next day; all 18 crew, 14 Filipino and four Ukrainian, were rescued. AP counts it the fifth drone attack in Bulgaria’s zone this month. Two days earlier Reuters had reported that ships bound for Constanța were not being targeted. No one has claimed the attack, and Bulgaria’s prime minister has said suspicion of Russia cannot be proven.

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Russia Reopens the Sea of Azov to Grain Ships, With a Naval Escort Planned

Russia has issued permits, valid to November 15, for grain ships to leave the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait — the first since it closed the passage on July 10 because of Ukrainian drone attacks, seven industry sources told Reuters. Two said a Russian naval convoy would escort the ships across the Black Sea. The reopening follows a collapse in Russia’s southern grain trade: in September its exports through Black Sea and Azov terminals fell 93.7 per cent from a year earlier, to 0.3 million tonnes, while its Baltic ports shipped 1.2 million tonnes against 47,400, by industry shipping data reported by Reuters.

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Russia Says It Hits Odesa-Bound Ships Almost Daily, and Sea-Drone Sites on the Danube

Russia’s defence ministry claimed a strike on a cargo ship bound for Odesa or Chornomorsk on each of October 23, 24, 25 and 26. It also claimed port facilities at Vylkove on the Danube that it said operated sea drones, a sea-drone workshop at Chornomorsk and three of that port’s berthing terminals. It named no ship and gave no evidence for its assertion that the ships carried supplies for Ukraine’s army; Reuters and Splash247 could not verify the claims. If true, Russia’s claimed target set now reaches a second Danube port, Vylkove, after Reni.

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Kernel’s Oil Sales Halve, and Ukraine’s Grain Shifts to Romania’s Constanța

Ukrainian agribusiness Kernel said its edible-oil sales fell 48 per cent year on year in July–September and its grain exports 54 per cent, to 574,000 tonnes; tonnage through its export terminals fell 59 per cent. It blamed shipping disruption from Russian attacks on Black Sea ports: its Chornomorsk terminals were suspended in July, and it sent some cargo through Danube ports and over the western land border. Constanța took up part of the trade, handling 1.03 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain in the first nine months of 2026 against 321,000 a year earlier, its port authority says — figures from before October’s attacks.

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It’s better to launch missiles from their own harbor, even though if something detonates there, everyone nearby will be in serious trouble. So yes, they decided to stay home.

— Dmytro Pletenchuk

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Unverified. Ukraine’s navy spokesman says Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has kept out of open waters for five months, firing Kalibrs from Novorossiysk — an extension of his September 3 claim. No independent count of Russian warship sorties has been published.

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The Black Sea Overtakes the Gulf as the Deadliest Water for Seafarers

More than 570 vessels have been attacked in the Black Sea in 2026 and at least 40 seafarers killed, by figures from the maritime security firm Ambrey and the International Maritime Organization reported by the Financial Times on October 25. The IMO confirms 24 around Hormuz and the Middle East. Ambrey counts nine merchant ships struck in Romanian and Bulgarian waters in October alone. War-risk cover for the Romanian coast is still sold, but at higher prices and with a few insurers pulling back, a London market source told Reuters. Neither count says who carried out the attacks.

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A Drone Sinks a Ship Bound for the Danube off Constanța; One Dead, Three Missing

A drone hit the Comoros-flagged cargo ship Khoryv about 13 nautical miles east of Constanța, just outside Romania’s territorial waters, on October 23. It sank; of its 13 Ukrainian and Azerbaijani crew, one was killed, three are missing and nine were rescued, Romania’s naval authority said. By MarineTraffic data it had left Turkey on October 21 for Sulina, at the mouth of the Danube. Reuters reports that recently struck ships were near or bound for the Sulina canal, Ukraine’s main export route. Romania’s president called the attack a consequence of Russia’s aggression; no evidence of who launched the drone has been published, and Russia did not comment.

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Russia’s Black Sea Ports Lose Almost All Their Cargo and Ask Moscow for Help

Russia’s ports on the Black and Azov seas lost 95 to 100 per cent of their cargo in September, Kommersant reported, citing unnamed sources; operators at Novorossiysk, Taman and Tuapse have sent staff on unpaid leave or laid them off. Krasnodar’s governor has asked the government for emergency support for the ports. Novorossiysk has resumed loading grain, but only 59,600 tonnes in October 1–20, against 1.7 million a year earlier, the Russian Grain Union’s figures show. Russian grain now leaves through 15 ports instead of 38, and loadings at the Baltic ports have risen elevenfold.

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Russia Says It Hit Ships in the Danube Port of Reni, and a Container Ship at Odesa

Russia’s defence ministry said it struck five cargo ships on October 20, three of them in Reni, a Ukrainian port on the Danube, and two heading for Odesa, along with port loading infrastructure. It also claimed a container ship at Odesa, and on October 21 another cargo ship bound there. It named none of them and gave no evidence for its claim that they were “used for military purposes”; Reuters could not confirm the strikes. If true, it carries Russia’s campaign against Ukraine-bound shipping up the Danube and to container traffic.

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Six attacks in 10 days by suspected Russian drones marks a dangerous and unacceptable escalation.

— Kaja Kallas

Not yet checked

Unverified on attribution. The count fits Reuters’ and AP’s tallies, at least seven ships hit off Romania and Bulgaria in about ten days. But as of October 20 neither NATO, Bulgaria nor Romania had formally named an attacker, and the Kremlin denies it (Al Jazeera).

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Ukraine Offers to Pay Most of What Insurers Won’t for Ships Calling at Its Ports

Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry set up a scheme to compensate shipowners, operators and charterers, under any flag, for up to 80 per cent of assessed damage their insurers do not cover: to the ship, to its cargo, and the cost of rescue. It comes as ships largely avoid Ukraine’s ports. The agriculture ministry, an interested party, says the attacks have effectively halted farm exports and put about 32 million tonnes worth some $10 billion at risk.

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Drones Hit Ships Inside Romania’s Waters

Four more merchant ships were struck. On October 13 three aerial drones hit the Malta-flagged, Ukrainian-operated Chelsea 3, whose 15 crew were taken off, and the Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity, whose 11 crew are missing; Bulgaria summoned Russia’s ambassador. On October 14–15 the Comoros-flagged tanker Yara J and the San Marino-flagged Wine Trader burned near Sulina; five of the Wine Trader’s 12 crew were rescued and seven missing. Accounts differ on whether both lay inside Romania’s territorial waters. Romania’s foreign minister said “Russia bears full responsibility”; Bulgaria’s prime minister says the logic points to Russia but “we cannot prove it”.

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Russia’s Grain Stops Leaving by Its Black Sea Ports

Russia’s port grain exports in early October fell more than 80 per cent on a year earlier, to 436,000 tonnes, according to Interfax figures relayed by the Ukrainian outlet NV. Wheat was 427,400 tonnes against 2 million. Only seven ports loaded grain, against 35, and none of them was on the Black Sea: the volume went out of Ust-Luga, Vysotsk and St Petersburg on the Baltic, and a little through the Caspian and Vladivostok. Bloomberg reports grain is also moving by rail to Latvian and Lithuanian ports after attacks by both sides sharply cut Black Sea exports.

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Russia Says It Is Striking Ships Bound for Ukraine’s Ports

Russia’s defence ministry said it struck three cargo vessels with drones on October 12 — two bound for Odesa, one for Mykolaiv — and that they carried military cargo; Reuters could not verify it. On October 16 the ministry claimed another ship heading for Odesa, unnamed, with Turkish sailors reportedly aboard, the trade outlet USM reported, citing Bulgaria’s Maritime.bg. A Bulgarian shipping agent rejects the weapons claim. The risk consultancy Ambrey estimates Russian forces are behind about 80 per cent of attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea, which have widened in number and range since July.

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Three Merchant Ships Hit off Romania and Bulgaria; a Tanker Burns off Sochi

Aerial and sea drones struck two merchant ships about 80 miles off Bulgaria on October 6, sinking the Togo-flagged Alfa Watan and setting fire to the Palau-flagged Able, which was carrying wheat, Prime Minister Rumen Radev said. A day earlier a Turkish-owned ship carrying corn burned and sank in Romania’s economic zone; Romanian authorities reported two dead. Bulgaria called the drones unidentified; Zelensky alone said the attack was Russian. Radev said insurance costs were rising. The same day Russia’s transport ministry said a naval drone set a Liberian-flagged tanker ablaze off Sochi; Kyiv did not comment.

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We verified all the details with the Bulgarian side. Our Navy contacted its counterparts in Bulgaria, and it has been established that this was a combined Russian attack using maritime and aerial drones.

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy

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Unverified. Bulgaria has not confirmed it: on October 16 Prime Minister Rumen Radev told parliament the logic points to Russia but “we cannot prove it” (AP). No coastal state has published evidence naming the attacker.

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Russia’s Grain Finds Only a Tenth of the Way Around the Black Sea

Bloomberg reported on October 1 that Russia shipped about 1.3 million tons of grain and oilseed through five alternative ports between July and September — roughly a tenth of the 12 million tons its Black Sea ports could have handled in those months. Daily rail loadings of farm products at the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Vysotsk rose 465 per cent in three weeks of September. The report is cited as relayed by the Institute for the Study of War, which ties the shortfall to Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Black Sea export terminals; that link is its reading.

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This quarter

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London’s Insurers List Almost the Whole Black Sea as a War-Risk Area

The Joint War Committee, which advises the London marine insurance market, widened its war-risk listing to “the Black Sea, excluding the territorial waters of adjoining countries other than Russia and Ukraine” — the whole sea except the coastal waters of Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia — together with the Sea of Azov and all of Ukraine’s inland waters, Safety4Sea reported on September 21. The committee notes that how a listing applies to individual policies remains subject to negotiation; the Guardian reports insurance rates have soared since.

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Sea Drones Reach Sochi for the First Time, Hitting an Oil-and-Gas Support Ship

Ukrainian naval drones struck the Russian support vessel Nefrit in the port of Sochi on 3 September — the first time Ukraine's sea drones have reached Sochi. Two measures of that reach are on the record and are not the same thing: about 560 kilometres from the nearest Ukrainian-held coast, and about 820 kilometres by sea, the figure ISW uses. The navy released footage and Sochi's mayor declared an emergency. The Nefrit is tied to Russia's offshore oil-and-gas work and, by Ukrainian and open-source accounts, to repair of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal carrying Kazakhstan's oil — reported, not confirmed.

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Russia has not sailed a missile-armed warship out of its own ports for three months, firing its sea-launched cruise missiles from beside its naval bases instead, and has been unable to repair or maintain its ships and submarines for two years.

— Dmytro Pletenchuk

Odesa's Ports Go From Eight Ships a Day to One

Ukrainian Ports Association president Dmytro Barinov told the Telegraph that traffic through Odesa Oblast ports has fallen from an average of seven or eight vessels a day to one, since Russian forces began repeated strikes on Black Sea port infrastructure using S8000 Banderol jet-powered loitering munitions. The Banderol entered serial production in late July and is launched from Orion drones and Mi-28N helicopters over Crimean airspace, stored in Dzhankoi Raion and at the Kirovske and Simferopol airfields; a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger says it is cheaper and faster to build than a Kh-101 cruise missile. The Telegraph report was reached only as relayed by ISW.

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Ukraine Strikes Grain Ships at Russian Ports for the First Time

Ukrainian forces struck at least five grain vessels near the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse on August 17 and 18, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter — the first confirmed strikes on grain ships at Russian ports, and a new class of maritime target. They came days after Moscow rejected Ukraine's proposed moratorium on Black Sea maritime strikes. Russian authorities are said to be downplaying the attacks, and the attribution is soft — "unspecified actors", likely Ukrainian — so it is recorded here as reported rather than confirmed. It extends a campaign that had already reached the Baltic at Ust-Luga into the grain trade that helps fund the war.

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The Biggest Strike Yet on Novorossiysk Halts Two of Russia's Largest Grain Terminals

On the night of 11-12 August Ukraine mounted its largest strike of the war on Novorossiysk, the Black Sea Fleet's main refuge and a principal oil and grain gateway. Zelensky said it used Palyanytsya jet drones, Neptune cruise missiles and sea drones against air-defence positions, berths and port infrastructure; Ukrainian sources published footage of fires at the Sheskharis oil terminal and the naval base, and Governor Veniamin Kondratyev acknowledged the strike. The measurable consequence was at the grain terminals: Reuters, citing four industry sources, reported two of Russia's largest suspended operations. Satellite imagery from Vantor, read by Naval News, indicates the frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov were hit on or beside their forward vertical-launch cells and burned — likely disabling the missile batteries of the two most capable surface ships the fleet had left after the Moskva sank in 2022. An S-300 fire-control radar was damaged. That reading is the publication's own analysts', and Russia has not acknowledged it.

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War-Risk Cover Dries Up in the Black and Azov Seas

The maritime strikes are raising the cost of moving cargo through Russia's southern waters. RBK reported on August 4, citing Russian shipping and insurance sources, that Russian insurers have effectively stopped covering military- and terrorism-risk for cargo ships in the Black and Azov seas — after the Russian Defence Ministry issued a navigational warning for those waters from July 12 to 18 amid intensified Ukrainian vessel strikes — and that foreign insurers have raised war-risk rates. The account is RBK's, a Russian business outlet, relayed by the Institute for the Study of War. It is a third-party cost of the campaign, borne by shippers rather than by either combatant, and a market signal of the same maritime pressure the Nadezhda and Gelendzhik strikes made visible.

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Drones Reach a Cargo Ship on the Turkish Route into Novorossiysk

On August 3 drones struck the Cameroon-flagged roll-on/roll-off cargo vessel Nadezhda as it approached Russia's Novorossiysk port from Samsun, Turkey, injuring three to four crew, according to Turkish officials and Russian opposition media relayed by the Institute for the Study of War. Russian opposition sources distinguished the vessel from a separate Russian-flagged dry-cargo ship of the same name that Ukraine has sanctioned. The strike extends the maritime campaign to third-country-flagged commercial shipping on the route into Novorossiysk, and lands the same day as the Gelendzhik beach strike a short distance away — both close to the naval base the port hosts.

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