? unverified
If the ~7-month doubling of the task-completion horizon holds, AI agents will be able to complete many software/engineering tasks that currently take humans days or weeks — reaching roughly month-long autonomous tasks — within the decade.
METR’s own extrapolation from its measured six-year doubling trend; not yet resolvable. METR notes a 10x error in the absolute measurement would shift arrival estimates by only ~2 years, and that the SWE-Bench-Verified subset doubled even faster (under 3 months).