Why this score Global investment bank; its Research division produces institutionally rigorous macro/capex analysis, tempered by sell-side incentives around the AI-trade narrative.
The AI investment boom has accounted for nearly half of S&P 500 earnings growth this year, and this tailwind should begin to fade next year even as capex spending continues to grow.
Resolves once calendar-2027 earnings are reported. Goldman gives ‘nearly half’ for 2026 and no exact share, so the comparison will rest on its own later decomposition or a comparable one.
Named investors called AI-era markets a bubble: Ray Dalio saw 'classic signs' of one reminiscent of 1929 and 2000 and agreed with Jeremy Grantham that this is 'the biggest investment bubble in American history'; Goldman Sachs's Peter Oppenheimer partly dissented — 'there does not appear to be a valuation bubble … there may be an earnings bubble' — while Apollo's Torsten Slok declared 'the 60/40 portfolio is broken.'
The speakers set no fixed date; this standing bubble call is tracked against its named indicator, the equity-issuance and IPO surge — SpaceX (public and trading below its first-trade price), Anthropic and OpenAI (both reported eyeing near-$1 trillion listings). The 2027-12-31 resolveBy is a charitable concrete reading, not the speakers' own. Unverified at capture.
While the exact magnitude and mix of future debt issuance from the hyperscalers is uncertain, our review of management commentary leaves us expecting a growing role for debt financing in the AI buildout in the years ahead.
Still open. Bank of America counts $184.5 billion of dollar bonds from hyperscalers to 24 September and $71.8 billion more in other currencies, against Goldman’s $250 billion for 2026 — but the two counts cover different issuers and bond types. The debt-share-of-capex limb remains unmeasured.
Generative AI could expose the equivalent of ~300 million full-time jobs to automation globally.
Exposure (tasks automatable), not displacement (jobs lost); the two are routinely conflated in coverage. Not tagged as a scorable prediction because 'exposed' has no agreed observable that settles it.