? unverified
SpaceX’s annual recurring revenue will be “somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion” by the end of 2027.
Comes due after 2027. The latest reported quarter, the third of 2026, brought $14.6 billion of revenue.
Elon Musk
40%credibility0 / 0 / 0
Why this score CEO of xAI (and Tesla, SpaceX). Extensive, well-documented public record of missed self-set timelines and promotional claims across ventures — record verbatim, verify always.
Tracked statements
4? unverified
To be clear, the $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark. That's what we would achieve if we basically did nothing.
A forward claim about SpaceX's own revenue, recorded as a forecast (the weaker inference about a speaker forecasting a company he controls). It resolves when SpaceX next discloses an annualised-recurring-revenue figure at or after December 2026: at least $100 billion confirms it. Musk's own framing conditions the number on closing the $60 billion Cursor acquisition, so a resolution should note whether that deal closed. Unverified at capture.
? unverified
Colossus is the most powerful AI training system in the world.
Vendor claim by Elon Musk at launch; no independent benchmark of Colossus against other clusters appears in this cycle’s record. Recorded as an attributed claim, not a verified fact.
? unverified
Therefore, we call on all AI labs to immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4.
The Future of Life Institute’s ‘Pause Giant AI Experiments’ open letter, signed by Musk, Bengio, Russell, Wozniak and thousands of others. As a matter of record no lab paused — training of GPT-4-class and more capable models continued and accelerated through 2023–2026 — and nineteen past AAAI presidents published a counter-letter on 5 April 2023 urging ‘a constructive, collaborative, and scientific approach’ instead. But the letter is a normative call to action and a risk judgement, not a falsifiable factual prediction, so it is recorded rather than scored against its signatories.