? unverified
The issue is not simply that investors are borrowing more, but that leverage is interacting with high valuations and market concentration, in particular the increasing cross-investment between artificial intelligence (AI) companies and hyper scalers, in a way that could amplify a future market correction. I remain concerned therefore that a large shock or combination of shocks could concurrently trigger multiple vulnerabilities.
Conditional and undated, so not scored as a prediction: no metric, threshold or resolution date. What is checkable is the mechanism named — cross-investment between AI companies and hyperscalers, which this page records in the Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft and Broadcom arrangements already on its timeline.